Match details. UEFA Europa League, League Stage - 3. Kick-off is Thu 22 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at Stadion Miejski w Białymstoku, Bialystok. The referee is Ondrej Berka.
What's at stake. Jagiellonia Bialystok are 17th on 3 points after 2 games, level on points with AC Milan, level on points with OFI. A win would take them above AC Milan. RSC Anderlecht are 29th on 0 points after 2 games, level on points with Celta Vigo, level on points with 1899 Hoffenheim. A win would take them above Celta Vigo.
Team news. Jagiellonia Bialystok are without D. Drachal (off the roster), C. Polak (off the roster), N. Prelec (inactive), D. Rallis (off the roster), N. Wojtuszek (inactive), Z. Zalewski (off the roster). N. Prelec is their main creator. RSC Anderlecht are without G. Biancone (hamstring injury), I. Camara (foot injury), L. Hey (broken leg), I. Koutsoupias (off the roster), K. Sardella (thigh injury), G. Biancone (hamstring injury).
Form. Jagiellonia Bialystok have won four, drawn none and lost six of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L L L. RSC Anderlecht have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W W L.
The numbers. Jagiellonia Bialystok score 1.6 and concede 1.8 a game over their last ten, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Jagiellonia Bialystok average 9.8 shots (3.6 on target), 2.9 corners and 1.4 cards a game, with 42% of the ball. RSC Anderlecht score 0.8 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. RSC Anderlecht average 12.4 shots (5.5 on target), 5.0 corners and 2.4 cards a game, with 53% of the ball.
The case against. Jagiellonia Bialystok's record still gives them 47% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 69%.
The read. RSC Anderlecht or the draw. A draw is live. A tight game. RSC Anderlecht are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour RSC Anderlecht.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.47, 80% on the records (Jagiellonia Bialystok: under 3.5 goals in 6 of 10; RSC Anderlecht: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 5 away). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.18. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: RSC Anderlecht or Under 2.5 Goals (no side to back); RSC Anderlecht 1UP (no side to back); RSC Anderlecht (Draw No Bet) (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-1 RSC Anderlecht (12% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).