Leones Futbol Club vs Libertad Loja
Match details. LigaPro Primera A, Placement Group - 4. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 17:30 Lagos time. It is played at Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra.
What's at stake. Leones Futbol Club are 10th on 40 points after 33 games, 2 points behind Emelec. A win would take them above Emelec. Libertad Loja are 7th on 50 points after 33 games, 7 points clear of Guayaquil City FC. Leones Futbol Club have nothing left to play for.
Form. Leones Futbol Club have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L D L D. In this competition Leones Futbol Club have gone L L D L D W. Libertad Loja have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W L W. In this competition Libertad Loja have gone W W W L W D.
The numbers. Leones Futbol Club score 0.9 and concede 1.7 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. Leones Futbol Club average 15.1 shots (4.5 on target), 4.8 corners and 2.6 cards a game, with 50% of the ball. Libertad Loja score 1.8 and concede 0.9 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets. Libertad Loja average 14.2 shots (5.4 on target), 4.5 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 45% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last three meetings Leones Futbol Club have won one, drawn one and lost one. Two of the three went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. The last time they met, on 9 Oct 2026, it finished Leones Futbol Club 0-3 Libertad Loja: Leones Futbol Club had 17 shots to 15, 54% of the ball, two yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 29% against the records' 56%. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 57%; two of the last three meetings went over 2.5.
The read. No firm call: Libertad Loja are the better side, but not at this price. Libertad Loja are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Libertad Loja.
The bets. No bet on this one: too close to call. Predicted score: Leones Futbol Club 1-1 Libertad Loja (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).