Celtic vs Celta
Match details. UEFA Europa League, League Stage - 3. Kick-off is Thu 22 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at Celtic Park, Glasgow. The referee is Georgi Nikolov Kabakov.
What's at stake. Celtic are 33rd on 0 points after 2 games, level on points with Marseille, level on points with Ararat-Armenia. A win would take them above Marseille. Celta are 28th on 0 points after 2 games, 1 point behind NEC Nijmegen, level on points with Anderlecht. A win would take them above NEC Nijmegen.
Team news. Celtic are without L. Emenalo (off the roster), Jota (off the roster), S. Mheuka (off the roster), A. Trusty (inactive), Yang Hyun-Jun (hamstring injury), J. van den Berg (off the roster). A. Trusty is their centre-back. Celta are without J. El Abdellaoui (knee injury), B. Iglesias (calf injury), A. Nunez (groin injury), M. Roman (knee injury), C. Starfelt (muscle injury), J. El Abdellaoui (knee injury).
Form. Celtic have won six, drawn none and lost four of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W L L. In this competition Celtic have gone L L. Celta have won two, drawn four and lost four of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D W L. In this competition Celta have gone L L.
The numbers. Celtic score 2.6 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Celtic average 16.4 shots (6.9 on target), 8.0 corners and 1.6 cards a game, with 56% of the ball. Celta score 1.1 and concede one a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and four games without a goal. Celta average 11.8 shots (3.6 on target), 3.5 corners and 1.9 cards a game, with 48% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 58%.
The case against. Celtic's record still gives them 50% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 58%.
The read. Celta or the draw. A draw is live. A tight game. Celtic are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Celtic. Their goals for and against point to a tight game.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.51, 76% on the records (Celtic: under 3.5 goals in 3 of 5 at home; Celta: under 3.5 goals in 9 of 10). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.20. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Celtic 1-1 Celta (14% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).