INTERNATIONAL CLUBS - UEFA EUROPA LEAGUE

AOACO

20:00Thu 22 Oct

BEN

BEN

AC Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica

CLASS A

Pick card Full analysis Share

THE READ

Match details. UEFA Europa League, League Stage - 3. Kick-off is Thu 22 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at Neo GSP, Levkosía. The referee is Jasper Vergoote.

What's at stake. AC Omonia Nicosia are 6th on 6 points after 2 games, level on points with Bournemouth, level on points with Ferencvarosi TC. A win would take them above Bournemouth. Benfica are 3rd on 6 points after 2 games, level on points with Bayer Leverkusen, level on points with Beşiktaş. A win would take them above Bayer Leverkusen.

Team news. AC Omonia Nicosia are without B. Akintola (muscle injury), S. Coulibaly (inactive), C. Eiting (knee injury), F. Kitsos (knee injury), M. Odubajo (inactive), B. Akintola (muscle injury). S. Coulibaly is their centre-back. Benfica are without D. Banjaqui (muscle injury), L. Barreiro (inactive), E. Barrenechea (injury), J. Duran (inactive), D. Ferreira (inactive), J. Kaminski (muscle injury).

Form. AC Omonia Nicosia have won six, drawn three and lost one of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W W W. Benfica have won nine, drawn none and lost one of their last ten, 2.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L W W.

The numbers. AC Omonia Nicosia score 1.6 and concede 0.9 a game in their last seven at home, with three clean sheets and three games without a goal. AC Omonia Nicosia average 15.8 shots (6.8 on target), 6.8 corners and 1.6 cards a game, with 46% of the ball. Benfica score 2.6 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five away, with three clean sheets. Benfica average 15.1 shots (5.8 on target), 7.3 corners and 2.5 cards a game, with 60% of the ball.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 72% against the records' 48%.

The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their xG points to an open game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 64%.

The read. No firm call: Benfica are the better side, but not at this price. A draw is live. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Benfica the likelier winners; Benfica are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Benfica.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Benfica or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: AC Omonia Nicosia 1-1 Benfica (8% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

BENFICA GOALS

Benfica Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES

1.09

ACO 5 of 5 (100%) · BEN 4 of 7 (57%)84.6%

Benfica scored in 5 of 5 away · AC Omonia Nicosia conceded in 4 of 7 at home · both last 10: 75%

HALVES

2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY

1.18

ACO 5 of 7 (71%) · BEN 5 of 5 (100%)85.5%

AC Omonia Nicosia: the bet landed in 5 of 7 at home · Benfica: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 85% · on half-time scores

Left off the list: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); Benfica or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); Over 3.5 Cards (the numbers (57%) and the records (80%) are 24 points apart, and nothing settles it); AC Omonia Nicosia Under 1.5 goals (the numbers (46%) and the records (67%) are on opposite sides, and nothing settles it); Benfica Over 1.5 goals (AC Omonia Nicosia's own games don't back it (2 of 7)); Benfica or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); Under 4.5 Goals (Benfica are a clear winner - no Unders)

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 7.5%

AC Omonia Nicosia goals →

Benfica goals ↓

0-02%

1-03%

2-03%

3-02%

4-00.8%

5-00.3%

0-13%

1-17%

2-16%

3-14%

4-12%

5-10.6%

0-24%

1-28%

2-27%

3-24%

4-22%

5-20.7%

0-33%

1-36%

2-35%

3-33%

4-31%

5-30.5%

0-42%

1-43%

2-43%

3-42%

4-40.8%

5-40.3%

0-50.8%

1-51%

2-51%

3-50.8%

4-50.4%

5-50.1%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

AC OMONIA NICOSIAWDLWDWWWWD2.10 PPG

BENFICAWWWWWWWLWW2.70 PPG

THE NUMBERS

AC OMONIA NICOSIA HOMExBENFICA AWAY

2.10SCORED A GAME2.700.70CONCEDED A GAME0.8050%CLEAN SHEETS40%17%FAILED TO SCORE0%6.80CORNERS A GAME7.301.60CARDS A GAME2.50

THE BANK

THE BANKER MENU

OVER 1.5 CARDS

–

543 OF 573

NO PRICE YET

Both sides' last 5 games point to 5.2+ cards.

Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.

THE QUALITY READ

2.00POINTS A GAME2.38+1.50GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+2.12+8.0SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+7.32.2LAST 5: POINTS A GAME2.46LEAGUE GAMES8

No quality side: neither club is ahead on more of these.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

74%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

44%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

75%

NO · 85/90

AC OMONIA NICOSIA OR DRAW

68%

NO · 80/85

BENFICA OR DRAW

75%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (6 and 8 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

AC OMONIA NICOSIAxBENFICA

5GAMES52.60SCORED A GAME2.600.80CONCEDED A GAME0.803.4GOALS IN THEIR GAMES3.480%OVER 1.5 GOALS100%80%OVER 2.5 GOALS80%60%BOTH SCORE40%5.0CARDS IN THEIR GAMES6.010.8CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES11.0

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TEAM NEWS

AC OMONIA NICOSIA

Out: B. Akintola (Muscle Injury), S. Coulibaly (Inactive), C. Eiting (Knee Injury), F. Kitsos (Knee Injury), M. Odubajo (Inactive), B. Akintola (Muscle Injury)

BENFICA

Out: D. Banjaqui (Muscle Injury), L. Barreiro (Inactive), E. Barrenechea (Injury), J. Duran (Inactive), D. Ferreira (Inactive), J. Kaminski (Muscle Injury)

TRENDS

AC Omonia Nicosia have scored in 70% of their games.

Benfica have scored in 100% of their games.

AC Omonia Nicosia kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games.

Benfica kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetsleague tableteam newscornerscards