Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo
Match details. Liga de Expansion MX, Apertura - 14. Kick-off is Fri 23 Oct, 02:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC are 13th on 16 points after 13 games, level on points with Tlaxcala, 1 point clear of CDS Tampico Madero. A win would take them above Tlaxcala. Cruz Azul Hidalgo are 15th on 14 points after 13 games, 1 point behind CDS Tampico Madero, 7 points clear of Tepatitlán. A win would take them above CDS Tampico Madero.
Form. Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L L L. Cruz Azul Hidalgo have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D L L.
The numbers. Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC score 1.2 and concede one a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC average 3.3 corners and 3.1 cards a game. Cruz Azul Hidalgo score 0.8 and concede two a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. Cruz Azul Hidalgo average 4.0 corners and 2.8 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: Cruz Azul Hidalgo are the stronger side on form and the table, but both teams' records favour Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game.
The read. No side to back. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.49, 72% on the records (Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; Cruz Azul Hidalgo: under 3.5 goals in 3 of 5 away). Backup: Under 2.5 first-half goals at 1.12. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); Cruz Azul Hidalgo or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); Cruz Azul Hidalgo Over 0.5 goals (Cruz Azul Hidalgo's own games don't back it (2 of 5)). Predicted score: Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC 1-1 Cruz Azul Hidalgo (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).