Defensa y Justicia vs CA Independiente Avellaneda
Match details. Primera LPF, Clausura - 15. Kick-off is Mon 2 Nov, 23:00 Lagos time. It is played at Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello, Florencio Varela, Provincia de Buenos Aires. The referee is Sebastian Nicolas Martinez.
What's at stake. Defensa y Justicia are 4th on 27 points after 14 games, 1 point behind Velez Sarsfield, 2 points clear of Lanus. A win would take them above Velez Sarsfield. CA Independiente Avellaneda are 8th on 19 points after 14 games, 2 points behind Gimnasia M., level on points with San Lorenzo. A win would take them above Gimnasia M..
Form. Defensa y Justicia have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W W D. In this competition Defensa y Justicia have gone W L W W D W. CA Independiente Avellaneda have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D D L W. In this competition CA Independiente Avellaneda have gone L D D L W D.
The numbers. Defensa y Justicia score 1.5 and concede 0.7 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and two games without a goal. Defensa y Justicia average 15.0 shots (5.4 on target), 3.9 corners and 2.1 cards a game, with 54% of the ball. CA Independiente Avellaneda score 1.4 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. CA Independiente Avellaneda average 13.2 shots (3.5 on target), 3.9 corners and 2.6 cards a game, with 48% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Defensa y Justicia have won two, drawn three and lost five. Two of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. In the last four, Defensa y Justicia won two, one was drawn and CA Independiente Avellaneda won one. The last time they met, on 18 Apr 2026, it finished Defensa y Justicia 1-3 CA Independiente Avellaneda: Defensa y Justicia had 9 shots to 14, 49% of the ball, four yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Defensa y Justicia the likelier winners, but Defensa y Justicia are the stronger side on form and the table; the meetings favour CA Independiente Avellaneda.
The case against. CA Independiente Avellaneda's record still gives them 35% to win. The meetings do not back them.
The read. Defensa y Justicia or the draw. A draw is live. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Defensa y Justicia the likelier winners; Defensa y Justicia are the stronger side on form and the table; the meetings favour CA Independiente Avellaneda. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 38%. Eight of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.26, 75% on the records (Defensa y Justicia: under 3.5 goals in 9 of 10; CA Independiente Avellaneda: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 away). Backup: Under 1.5 first-half goals at 1.35. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Defensa y Justicia 1-1 CA Independiente Avellaneda (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).