Sarpsborg 08 vs Aalesunds FK
Match details. Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 17:00 Lagos time. It is played at Sarpsborg Stadion, Sarpsberg. The referee is Mischa Kellerhals.
What's at stake. Sarpsborg 08 are 11th on 28 points after 23 games, 1 point behind KFUM Oslo, 2 points clear of Ham-Kam. A win would take them above KFUM Oslo. Aalesunds FK are 14th on 24 points after 23 games, level on points with Sandefjord, 5 points clear of Kristiansund BK. A win would take them above Sandefjord.
Team news. Sarpsborg 08 are without F. Carstensen (injury), M. Opoku (ankle injury), F. Carstensen (injury), M. Opoku (ankle injury). Aalesunds FK are without H. Hammer (injury), S. Haram (elbow injury), M. Reed (injury), P. Aukland (injury), A. Kjelsen (injury), H. Hammer (injury).
Form. Sarpsborg 08 have won two, drawn four and lost four of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L D D. In this competition Sarpsborg 08 have gone L W L D D D. Aalesunds FK have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W L W. In this competition Aalesunds FK have gone W L W L W L.
The numbers. Sarpsborg 08 score one and concede two a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Sarpsborg 08 average 16.1 shots (5.4 on target), 6.1 corners and 1.2 cards a game, with 49% of the ball. Aalesunds FK score 1.8 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets. Aalesunds FK average 17.2 shots (6.2 on target), 6.2 corners and 2.4 cards a game, with 44% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Sarpsborg 08 have won seven, drawn one and lost two. Eight of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in seven. In the last four, Sarpsborg 08 won three and Aalesunds FK won one. The last time they met, on 11 Oct 2026, it finished Sarpsborg 08 4-2 Aalesunds FK: Sarpsborg 08 had 18 shots to 23, 47% of the ball, three yellow cards.
The case against. Aalesunds FK's record still gives them 42% to win.
The read. Sarpsborg 08 to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Sarpsborg 08 the likelier winners; the meetings favour Sarpsborg 08. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 78%. Eight of the last ten meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.11, 80% on the records (Sarpsborg 08: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; Aalesunds FK: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 away). Backup: Sarpsborg 08 or Over 2.5 Goals at 1.19. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Aalesunds FK or Over 2.5 Goals (the call backs Sarpsborg 08); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Aalesunds FK or Over 1.5 Goals (the call backs Sarpsborg 08). Predicted score: Sarpsborg 08 2-1 Aalesunds FK (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).