Match details. 1. Liga, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is Sat 24 Oct, 14:00 Lagos time. It is played at Tekstilshchik Stadium, Ivanovo.
What's at stake. FC Tekstilshchik Ivanovo are 17th on 10 points after 14 games, 2 points behind FK Neftekhimik, 3 points clear of Ska-khabarovsk. A win would take them above FK Neftekhimik. FK Sochi are 2nd on 29 points after 14 games, 8 points behind Nizhny Novgorod, 2 points clear of Torpedo Moskva.
Form. FC Tekstilshchik Ivanovo have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L D L. In this competition FC Tekstilshchik Ivanovo have gone W L L D L L. FK Sochi have won eight, drawn one and lost one of their last ten, 2.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D W L. In this competition FK Sochi have gone W W D W L W.
The numbers. FC Tekstilshchik Ivanovo score 0.8 and concede 2.2 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. FC Tekstilshchik Ivanovo average 3.7 shots (2.7 on target), 4.2 corners and 2.7 cards a game, with 49% of the ball. FK Sochi score two and concede one a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. FK Sochi average 8.0 shots (3.5 on target), 5.8 corners and 2.2 cards a game, with 51% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 58% against the records' 83%.
The read. No firm call: FK Sochi are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make FK Sochi the likelier winners; FK Sochi are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour FK Sochi. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 62%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: FC Tekstilshchik Ivanovo 1-2 FK Sochi (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).