INTERNATIONAL CLUBS - UEFA CONFERENCE LEAGUE

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17:45Thu 22 Oct

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LUG

Getafe vs Lugano

CLASS A

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THE READ

Match details. Getafe host Lugano at Estadio Coliseum in the UEFA Conference League, League Stage - 2. Kick-off is Thu 22 Oct, 17:45 Lagos time. A. Karaoglan is the referee for this one.

What's at stake. Getafe sit 15th on 1 point after 1 game, level on points with FC Midtjylland and 2 points behind Twente. A win takes them above Twente. Lugano are 8th on 3 points after 1 game, level on points with SC Freiburg and Monaco, where a win takes them above SC Freiburg.

Form. Getafe have won two, drawn four and lost four of their last ten, picking up 1.0 points a game. Their last five read D D L W L. Lugano are in great nick with eight wins, two draws and no losses in ten, taking 2.6 points a game after five wins in a row (W W W W W).

The numbers. Getafe score one and concede 0.6 a game in their last five at home, keeping two clean sheets. They average 8.9 shots with 2.9 on target, 4.0 corners and 3.8 cards, holding 53% of the ball. Lugano score 2.8 and concede 0.6 away in their last five, also with two clean sheets. They average 12.3 shots with 5.3 on target, 5.6 corners and 3.6 cards, with 55% possession.

The case against. Lugano's record still gives them a 48% chance to win this one. Not everything agrees on goals, as their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at just 43%.

The read. Getafe or the draw. An open game. Lugano are the stronger side on form and the table. For me, both teams' records favour Lugano.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Getafe 2-1 Lugano (9% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Getafe or Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

GET 5 of 5 (100%) · LUG 5 of 5 (100%)84.5%

Getafe: the bet landed in 5 of 5 at home · Lugano: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 82% · each game weighed by who it was against

Getafe or Both Teams ScoreIN CODES

1.20

GET 5 of 5 (100%) · LUG 3 of 5 (60%)75%

Getafe: the bet landed in 5 of 5 at home · Lugano: the bet landed in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 63% · each game weighed by who it was against

GOALS

Over 1.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.38

GET 3 of 5 (60%) · LUG 5 of 5 (100%)66.6%

Getafe: over 1.5 goals in 3 of 5 at home · Lugano: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 73% · each game weighed by who it was against

GETAFE GOALS

Getafe Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES

1.27

GET 5 of 5 (100%) · LUG 3 of 5 (60%)76.4%

Getafe scored in 5 of 5 at home · Lugano conceded in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 63% · each game weighed by who it was against

HALVES

Under 1.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.43

GET 5 of 5 (100%) · LUG 4 of 5 (80%)85.4%

Getafe: the bet landed in 5 of 5 at home · Lugano: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 75% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

Left off the list: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10)); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 2–1 9.2%

Getafe goals →

Lugano goals ↓

0-08%

1-010%

2-08%

3-04%

4-02%

5-00.5%

0-17%

1-113%

2-19%

3-15%

4-12%

5-10.5%

0-25%

1-27%

2-25%

3-23%

4-21.0%

5-20.3%

0-32%

1-33%

2-32%

3-31%

4-30.4%

5-30.1%

0-40.5%

1-40.8%

2-40.6%

3-40.3%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.1%

1-50.2%

2-50.1%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).

FORM · LAST 10

GETAFEDDLWLDDLLW1.00 PPG

LUGANOWWWWWDWWWD2.60 PPG

THE NUMBERS

GETAFE HOMExLUGANO AWAY

0.70SCORED A GAME2.801.10CONCEDED A GAME0.8020%CLEAN SHEETS40%0%FAILED TO SCORE0%4.00CORNERS A GAME5.573.80CARDS A GAME3.56

THE BANK

THE BANKER MENU

OVER 1.5 CARDS

–

543 OF 573

NO PRICE YET

Both sides' last 5 games point to 5.2+ cards.

Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.

THE QUALITY READ

1.00POINTS A GAME2.82-0.67GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+2.27-3.8SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+4.11.0LAST 5: POINTS A GAME2.69LEAGUE GAMES11

Lugano: the quality side - more shots than it allows, better form (last 5).

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

76%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

62%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

90%

VERY GOOD · 85/90

GETAFE OR DRAW

61%

NO · 80/85

LUGANO OR DRAW

80%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (9 and 11 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

GETAFExLUGANO

5GAMES50.60SCORED A GAME3.401.20CONCEDED A GAME0.801.8GOALS IN THEIR GAMES4.260%OVER 1.5 GOALS100%20%OVER 2.5 GOALS100%40%BOTH SCORE60%6.2CARDS IN THEIR GAMES5.811.6CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES9.6

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TRENDS

Getafe have scored in 70% of their games.

Lugano have scored in 100% of their games.

Getafe kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.

Lugano kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetsleague tableteam newscornerscards