Banbury United vs Leighton Town
Match details. Southern League Premier Central, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is Tue 20 Oct, 19:45 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Banbury United are 18th on 10 points after 12 games, level on points with Bishop's Stortford, 3 points clear of Worcester City. A win would take them above Bishop's Stortford. Leighton Town are 21st on 5 points after 11 games, 2 points behind Hitchin Town, 4 points clear of Stamford. A win would take them above Hitchin Town.
Form. Banbury United have won one, drawn three and lost six of their last ten, 0.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L W L D. In this competition Banbury United have gone D L W L D L. Leighton Town have won one, drawn none and lost eight of their last nine, 0.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L L L. In this competition Leighton Town have gone L L L L L L.
The numbers. Banbury United score 1.6 and concede 2.2 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets. Banbury United average 4.3 corners and 1.5 cards a game. Leighton Town score one and concede 2.4 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal.
Head to head. The last time they met, on 22 Oct 2011, it finished Banbury United 1-0 Leighton Town.
The case against. Leighton Town's record still gives them 32% to win.
The read. Banbury United to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Banbury United the likelier winners; Banbury United are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Banbury United. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 71%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.24, 77% on the records (Banbury United: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home; Leighton Town: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 away). Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: Banbury United 2-1 Leighton Town (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).