Naft Gachsaran vs FC Fard Alborz
Match details. Azadegan League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is Mon 19 Oct, 14:30 Lagos time.
Form. Naft Gachsaran have won none, drawn four and lost six of their last ten, 0.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D D L D. FC Fard Alborz have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D W D.
The numbers. Naft Gachsaran score 0.2 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets and four games without a goal. FC Fard Alborz score one and concede 0.2 a game in their last five away, with four clean sheets and two games without a goal.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 39% against the records' 62%.
The read. No firm call: FC Fard Alborz are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Their goals for and against make FC Fard Alborz the likelier winners; FC Fard Alborz are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour FC Fard Alborz. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 12%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 2.5 Goals at 1.34, 88% on the records (Naft Gachsaran: under 2.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; FC Fard Alborz: under 2.5 goals in 5 of 5 away). Backup: FC Fard Alborz Over 0.5 Goals at 1.47. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Naft Gachsaran 0-1 FC Fard Alborz (18% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).