Match details. Gaucho, Serie A2. Kick-off is Sun 18 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time.
Form. Uniao Frederiquense de Futebol RS have won three, drawn four and lost one of their last eight league games, 1.6 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: L W D D D. Gremio Esportivo Brasil have won four, drawn two and lost two of their last eight league games, 1.8 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: L W W D L.
The numbers. Uniao Frederiquense de Futebol RS score 1.2 and concede one a game over their last eight, with four clean sheets and two games without a goal. Uniao Frederiquense de Futebol RS average 5.2 corners and 2.8 cards a game. Gremio Esportivo Brasil score one and concede 0.8 a game over their last eight, with five clean sheets and two games without a goal. Gremio Esportivo Brasil average 5.5 corners and 3.0 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Uniao Frederiquense de Futebol RS the likelier winners, but Gremio Esportivo Brasil are the stronger side on form and the table.
The read. A draw. A tight game. Little separates them, and both sides draw often. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 15%.
The bets. No best bet: the strongest pick did not fit the read of this game. Predicted score: Uniao Frederiquense de Futebol RS 0-0 Gremio Esportivo Brasil (16% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (Uniao Frederiquense de Futebol RS the favourite), a tight game.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).