Phoenix Rising FC vs Lexington SC
Match details. USL Championship, Group Stage. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 03:00 Lagos time. It is played at Wild Horse Pass Stadium. The referee is N. Bensalah.
What's at stake. Phoenix Rising FC are 8th on 39 points after 29 games, 3 points behind San Antonio, level on points with Orange County SC. A win would take them level on points with San Antonio. Lexington SC are 4th on 47 points after 29 games, 1 point behind Sacramento Republic, 3 points clear of Colorado Springs. A win would take them above Sacramento Republic.
Form. Phoenix Rising FC have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L L L. In this competition Phoenix Rising FC have gone W W L L L W. Lexington SC have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W W W. In this competition Lexington SC have gone W D W W W W.
The numbers. Phoenix Rising FC score 2.2 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets. Phoenix Rising FC average 4.3 corners and 2.7 cards a game. Lexington SC score three and concede 2.2 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets. Lexington SC average 5.4 corners and 1.7 cards a game.
Head to head. Lexington SC have won all of the last three meetings. None of the three went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in none. The last time they met, on 8 Aug 2026, it finished Phoenix Rising FC 0-1 Lexington SC.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 80%; three of the last three meetings went under 2.5.
The case against. Phoenix Rising FC's record still gives them 46% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: three of the last three meetings went under 2.5.
The read. Lexington SC to win. An open game. Lexington SC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Lexington SC; the meetings favour Lexington SC. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 80%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (Lexington SC are a clear winner, no Unders); Phoenix Rising FC Under 1.5 goals (Phoenix Rising FC's own games don't back it (1 of 5)); Under 5.5 Goals (Lexington SC are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: Phoenix Rising FC 1-2 Lexington SC (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).