Match details. J2 League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is Wed 21 Oct, 11:00 Lagos time. It is played at Lemon Gas Stadium, Hiratsuka.
What's at stake. Shonan Bellmare are 6th on 18 points after 11 games, level on points with Yokohama FC, 1 point clear of Oita Trinita. A win would take them above Yokohama FC. Iwaki FC are 8th on 15 points after 11 games, 2 points behind Oita Trinita, 1 point clear of Fujieda MYFC. A win would take them above Oita Trinita.
Form. Shonan Bellmare have won two, drawn six and lost two of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D L D W. Iwaki FC have won four, drawn none and lost six of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L L L.
The numbers. Shonan Bellmare score 1.3 and concede 1.7 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet. Shonan Bellmare average 5.8 corners and 1.0 cards a game. Iwaki FC score 0.8 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and three games without a goal. Iwaki FC average 6.8 corners and 1.4 cards a game.
The case against. Iwaki FC's record still gives them 31% to win.
The read. Shonan Bellmare or the draw. A tight game. Shonan Bellmare are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 44%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.30, 73% on the records (Shonan Bellmare: under 3.5 goals in 6 of 8; Iwaki FC: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 8). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.10. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Shonan Bellmare 1-1 Iwaki FC (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).