Shimizu S-Pulse vs Machida Zelvia
Match details. J1 League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is Wed 21 Oct, 11:00 Lagos time. It is played at IAI Stadium Nihondaira, Shizuoka.
What's at stake. Shimizu S-Pulse are 10th on 14 points after 10 games, 1 point behind Urawa, 1 point clear of Fagiano Okayama. A win would take them above Urawa. Machida Zelvia are 2nd on 23 points after 10 games, level on points with Sanfrecce Hiroshima, level on points with FC Tokyo. A win would take them above Sanfrecce Hiroshima.
Form. Shimizu S-Pulse have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L W D W. Machida Zelvia have won seven, drawn two and lost one of their last ten, 2.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W D W.
The numbers. Shimizu S-Pulse score 1.2 and concede one a game in their last six at home, with one clean sheet. Shimizu S-Pulse average 10.4 shots (3.2 on target), 4.9 corners and 1.5 cards a game, with 44% of the ball. Machida Zelvia score 1.7 and concede 0.8 a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets. Machida Zelvia average 12.0 shots (5.0 on target), 4.1 corners and 1.4 cards a game, with 49% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last six meetings Shimizu S-Pulse have won three, drawn one and lost two. Five of the six went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, Shimizu S-Pulse won one, one was drawn and Machida Zelvia won two. The last time they met, on 5 Jul 2025, it finished Shimizu S-Pulse 0-3 Machida Zelvia: Shimizu S-Pulse had 12 shots to 16, 64% of the ball, one yellow card.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 63%; five of the last six meetings went over 2.5, and the meetings settle it.
The case against. Shimizu S-Pulse's record still gives them 34% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to a tight game.
The read. Machida Zelvia to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Machida Zelvia the likelier winners; Machida Zelvia are the stronger side on form and the table; the meetings favour Machida Zelvia. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 63%. Five of the last six meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Machida Zelvia 1UP at 1.60, 74% on the records (Machida Zelvia scored first 4 of last 5, led in 4; led in 5 of 6). The safer one: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.37 (75%). Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Shimizu S-Pulse 1-2 Machida Zelvia (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).