Match details. Liga DIMAYOR, Clausura - 13. Kick-off is Wed 21 Oct, 02:30 Lagos time. It is played at Estadio El Campin, Bogota. The referee is J. Bautista.
What's at stake. Millonarios FC are 4th on 25 points after 15 games, 1 point behind Deportivo Cali, level on points with Bucaramanga. A win would take them above Deportivo Cali. CD Once Caldas are 9th on 19 points after 14 games, 1 point behind Deportes Tolima, level on points with Águilas Doradas. A win would take them above Deportes Tolima.
Form. Millonarios FC have won three, drawn six and lost one of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D D D W. In this competition Millonarios FC have gone W D D D W W. CD Once Caldas have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D L L. In this competition CD Once Caldas have gone W W D L L W.
The numbers. Millonarios FC score 1.7 and concede 1.1 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets. Millonarios FC average 14.6 shots (6.6 on target), 4.4 corners and 2.8 cards a game, with 53% of the ball. CD Once Caldas score one and concede one a game in their last six away, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. CD Once Caldas average 14.9 shots (5.9 on target), 5.1 corners and 2.4 cards a game, with 54% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Millonarios FC have won two, drawn five and lost three. Four of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, Millonarios FC won one and three were drawn. The last time they met, on 21 Mar 2026, it finished Millonarios FC 4-1 CD Once Caldas: Millonarios FC had 18 shots to 18, 32% of the ball, five yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 55% against the records' 29%.
The read. No firm call: Millonarios FC are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Millonarios FC the likelier winners; Millonarios FC are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 39%. Six of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.35, 74% on the records (Millonarios FC: under 3.5 goals in 7 of 10; CD Once Caldas: under 3.5 goals in 6 of 6 away). Backup: Millonarios FC Over 0.5 Goals at 1.16. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Millonarios FC or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Millonarios FC 1-1 CD Once Caldas (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).