Busaiteen vs Etehad Alreef
Match details. First Division. Kick-off is Mon 19 Oct, 17:00 Lagos time.
Form. Busaiteen have won one, drawn six and lost three of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D D L L. Etehad Alreef have won none, drawn three and lost seven of their last ten, 0.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L L D.
The numbers. Busaiteen score 1.4 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Busaiteen average 7.2 shots (2.7 on target), 3.7 corners and 3.7 cards a game. Etehad Alreef score 0.4 and concede 2.4 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 70% against the records' 33%.
The read. No firm call: Busaiteen are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Busaiteen the likelier winners; Busaiteen are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 70%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.18, 72% on the records (Busaiteen: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; Etehad Alreef: over 1.5 goals in 3 of 5 away). Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (the signs point different ways); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Busaiteen 2-1 Etehad Alreef (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).