Match details. 1.Liga. Kick-off is Sun 18 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time.
Form. Jfk Ventspils have won one, drawn two and lost seven of their last ten, 0.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W L L. Marupes SC have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W L L.
The numbers. Jfk Ventspils score 0.7 and concede two a game in their last six at home, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Jfk Ventspils average 6.6 corners and 1.9 cards a game. Marupes SC score 1.5 and concede 1.9 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and four games without a goal. Marupes SC average 5.4 corners and 2.2 cards a game.
The case against. Jfk Ventspils's record still gives them 32% to win.
The read. Marupes SC to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Marupes SC the likelier winners; Marupes SC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Marupes SC. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 60%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.18, rated 81% (Jfk Ventspils: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 6 at home; Marupes SC: over 1.5 goals in 8 of 10). Predicted score: Jfk Ventspils 1-2 Marupes SC (9% chance).
The agreed story. Marupes SC or the draw, an open game.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).