FFFCF

15:00Sun 18 Oct

ADF

FC Felgueiras 1932 vs AD Fafe

CLASS D

THE READ

Match details. Taca de Portugal, Round of 64. Kick-off is Sun 18 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time. It is played at Stadion Dr. Machado de Matos, Felgueiras.

What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.

Form. FC Felgueiras 1932 have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L L W. In this competition FC Felgueiras 1932 have gone W. AD Fafe have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W L W D. In this competition AD Fafe have gone W L.

The numbers. FC Felgueiras 1932 score 1.3 and concede 0.9 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. AD Fafe score 1.4 and concede one a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal.

Head to head. In the last eight meetings FC Felgueiras 1932 have won six, drawn one and lost one. Four of the eight went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, FC Felgueiras 1932 won three and one was drawn. The last time they met, on 5 Jan 2024, it finished FC Felgueiras 1932 3-0 AD Fafe.

The case against. A knockout game (Round of 64) with penalties if level, and FC Felgueiras 1932 are not clearly stronger. AD Fafe's record still gives them 25% to win.

The read. FC Felgueiras 1932 or the draw. A tight game. Both teams' records favour FC Felgueiras 1932; the meetings favour FC Felgueiras 1932. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 42%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: FC Felgueiras 1932 1-1 AD Fafe (14% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

GOALS

Under 3.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.22

FCF 9 of 10 (90%) · ADF 4 of 5 (80%)83.3%

FC Felgueiras 1932: under 3.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · AD Fafe: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 80% · H2H 5 of 6

AD FAFE GOALS

AD Fafe Over 0.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.42

FCF 3 of 5 (60%) · ADF 8 of 10 (80%)62.1%

AD Fafe scored in 3 of 5 away · FC Felgueiras 1932 conceded in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75% · H2H 2 of 6

HALVES

1st Half - GG/NG: NoPAGE ONLY

1.15

FCF 8 of 10 (80%) · ADF 5 of 5 (100%)85.8%

FC Felgueiras 1932: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · AD Fafe: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 80% · H2H 5 of 6 · on half-time scores

Under 1.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.32

FCF 8 of 10 (80%) · ADF 5 of 5 (100%)80.4%

FC Felgueiras 1932: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · AD Fafe: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 75% · H2H 4 of 6 · on half-time scores

Left off the list: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 14%

FC Felgueiras 1932 goals →

AD Fafe goals ↓

0-011%

1-011%

2-07%

3-03%

4-00.8%

5-00.2%

0-110%

1-114%

2-18%

3-13%

4-10.9%

5-10.2%

0-26%

1-27%

2-24%

3-22%

4-20.5%

5-20.1%

0-32%

1-33%

2-32%

3-30.6%

4-30.2%

5-30.0%

0-40.6%

1-40.8%

2-40.5%

3-40.2%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.1%

1-50.2%

2-50.1%

3-50.0%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

FC FELGUEIRAS 1932DWDDDWLLWL1.30 PPG

AD FAFELLDDWDWLWD1.30 PPG

THE NUMBERS

FC FELGUEIRAS 1932 HOMExAD FAFE AWAY

1.30SCORED A GAME1.500.90CONCEDED A GAME1.0020%CLEAN SHEETS40%43%FAILED TO SCORE17%

THE BANK

THE BANKER MENU

OVER 1.5 CARDS

–

543 OF 573

NO PRICE YET

Both sides' last 5 games point to 5.2+ cards.

Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.

THE QUALITY READ

0.86POINTS A GAME1.50-0.29GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+0.67-1.8SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST–0.8LAST 5: POINTS A GAME1.67LEAGUE GAMES6

AD Fafe: the quality side - more points a game, a better goal difference, better form (last 5).

AD FAFE 0:2 HANDICAP

–

373 OF 433

NO PRICE YET

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

71%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

47%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

100%

VERY GOOD · 85/90

FC FELGUEIRAS 1932 OR DRAW

52%

NO · 80/85

AD FAFE OR DRAW

65%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (7 and 6 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

FC FELGUEIRAS 1932xAD FAFE

5GAMES50.80SCORED A GAME2.001.20CONCEDED A GAME1.202.0GOALS IN THEIR GAMES3.260%OVER 1.5 GOALS100%40%OVER 2.5 GOALS80%60%BOTH SCORE80%5.8CARDS IN THEIR GAMES–9.8CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 8

FC FELGUEIRAS 1932 6 · 75%DRAW 1AD FAFE 1 · 12%

4 of 8BOTH TEAMS SCORED

5 of 8OVER 1.5 GOALS

4 of 8OVER 2.5 GOALS

1 of 8OVER 3.5 GOALS

2020-12-18FC Felgueiras 1932 2 – 1 AD Fafe

2021-03-14FC Felgueiras 1932 1 – 2 AD Fafe

2021-09-18FC Felgueiras 1932 3 – 1 AD Fafe

2022-02-23FC Felgueiras 1932 1 – 0 AD Fafe

2022-11-13FC Felgueiras 1932 1 – 0 AD Fafe

2023-02-25FC Felgueiras 1932 1 – 1 AD Fafe

2023-09-16FC Felgueiras 1932 1 – 0 AD Fafe

2024-01-05FC Felgueiras 1932 3 – 0 AD Fafe

TRENDS

FC Felgueiras 1932 failed to score in 43% of their games.

AD Fafe failed to score in 17% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againsthead to head