Deportivo Toluca FC vs Club Tijuana de Caliente
Match details. Liga MX, Apertura - 13. Kick-off is Thu 22 Oct, 02:00 Lagos time. It is played at Estadio Nemesio Diez, Toluca.
What's at stake. Deportivo Toluca FC are 3rd on 21 points after 12 games, 2 points behind Guadalajara Chivas, level on points with Leon. A win would take them above Guadalajara Chivas. Club Tijuana de Caliente are 10th on 16 points after 11 games, level on points with Santos Laguna, level on points with U.N.A.M. - Pumas. A win would take them above Santos Laguna.
Form. Deportivo Toluca FC have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L D L W. In this competition Deportivo Toluca FC have gone D L D L W W. Club Tijuana de Caliente have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D L D L. In this competition Club Tijuana de Caliente have gone D D L D L W.
The numbers. Deportivo Toluca FC score three and concede 1.4 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Deportivo Toluca FC average 19.6 shots (6.6 on target), 6.8 corners and 2.2 cards a game, with 56% of the ball. Club Tijuana de Caliente score 1.2 and concede 1.3 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and three games without a goal. Club Tijuana de Caliente average 14.8 shots (4.4 on target), 6.1 corners and 1.9 cards a game, with 47% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Deportivo Toluca FC have won six, drawn two and lost two. Six of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, Deportivo Toluca FC won three and one was drawn. The last time they met, on 14 Feb 2026, it finished Deportivo Toluca FC 1-0 Club Tijuana de Caliente: Deportivo Toluca FC had 12 shots to 7, 58% of the ball, six yellow cards.
The case against. Club Tijuana de Caliente's record still gives them 23% to win.
The read. Deportivo Toluca FC to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Deportivo Toluca FC the likelier winners; Deportivo Toluca FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Deportivo Toluca FC; the meetings favour Deportivo Toluca FC. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 56%. Six of the last ten meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.16, 78% on the records (Deportivo Toluca FC: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home; Club Tijuana de Caliente: over 1.5 goals in 6 of 10). Backup: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 at 1.12. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Club Tijuana de Caliente Under 1.5 goals (Club Tijuana de Caliente's own games don't back it (5 of 10)); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Deportivo Toluca FC 2-1 Club Tijuana de Caliente (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).