Orlando City SC vs New York City FC
Match details. MLS, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 00:30 Lagos time. It is played at Exploria Stadium, Orlando. The referee is Elijio Arreguin.
What's at stake. Orlando City SC are 7th on 41 points after 30 games, 5 points behind Philadelphia Union, 2 points clear of FC Cincinnati. New York City FC are 12th on 34 points after 30 games, 1 point behind Columbus Crew, 1 point clear of DC United. A win would take them above Columbus Crew. New York City FC have nothing left to play for.
Team news. Orlando City SC are without G. Dorsey (back injury), R. Jansson (foot injury), Luis Otavio (yellow cards), T. Spicer (foot injury), B. Rhein (injury), Vinicius Nogueira (shoulder injury). R. Jansson is their centre-back. New York City FC are without D. Baiera (knee injury), A. Farnos (leg injury), M. Moralez (knee injury), K. Parks (leg injury), K. Trewin (ankle injury), D. Baiera (knee injury).
Form. Orlando City SC have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W L L. In this competition Orlando City SC have gone W D W L L W. New York City FC have won one, drawn five and lost four of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L L D L. In this competition New York City FC have gone D L L D L W.
The numbers. Orlando City SC score 2.6 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Orlando City SC average 13.8 shots (5.8 on target), 4.1 corners and 2.1 cards a game, with 56% of the ball. New York City FC score 1.2 and concede 1.3 a game in their last six away, with one clean sheet. New York City FC average 11.8 shots (3.9 on target), 5.4 corners and 1.2 cards a game, with 54% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last nine meetings Orlando City SC have won one, drawn two and lost six. Six of the nine went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in seven. In the last four, one was drawn and New York City FC won three. The last time they met, on 7 Mar 2026, it finished Orlando City SC 0-5 New York City FC: Orlando City SC had 4 shots to 13, 29% of the ball, one yellow card.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Orlando City SC the likelier winners, but Orlando City SC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Orlando City SC; the meetings favour New York City FC.
The case against. New York City FC's record still gives them 29% to win. The meetings do not back them.
The read. Orlando City SC or the draw. A draw is live. An open game. Their goals for and against make Orlando City SC the likelier winners; Orlando City SC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Orlando City SC; the meetings favour New York City FC. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 60%. Six of the last nine meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.14, 79% on the records (Orlando City SC: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; New York City FC: over 1.5 goals in 6 of 6 away). Backup: Orlando City SC Over 0.5 Goals at 1.16. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Orlando City SC or draw and both teams score (the signs point different ways); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Orlando City SC 2-1 New York City FC (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).