Valencia vs Villarreal
Match details. LaLiga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is Sat 24 Oct, 17:30 Lagos time. It is played at Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia.
What's at stake. Valencia are 19th on 6 points after 9 games, 1 point behind Elche, 2 points clear of Malaga. A win would take them above Elche. Villarreal are 12th on 9 points after 9 games, level on points with Athletic Club, 1 point clear of Espanyol. A win would take them above Athletic Club.
Form. Valencia have won two, drawn three and lost five of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D L W L. Villarreal have won three, drawn one and lost six of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D W L W.
The numbers. Valencia score 0.8 and concede 1.7 a game in their last six at home, with two clean sheets and four games without a goal. Valencia average 9.8 shots (3.1 on target), 4.0 corners and 2.2 cards a game, with 46% of the ball. Villarreal score 1.6 and concede two a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Villarreal average 14.3 shots (6.2 on target), 7.1 corners and 1.7 cards a game, with 61% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Valencia have won two, drawn three and lost five. Three of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in six. In the last four, two were drawn and Villarreal won two. The last time they met, on 22 Feb 2026, it finished Valencia 1-2 Villarreal: Valencia had 8 shots to 12, 57% of the ball, six yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 51%; seven of the last ten meetings went under 2.5, and the meetings settle it.
The case against. Valencia's record still gives them 32% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 51%.
The read. Villarreal to win. A tight game. Villarreal are the stronger side on form and the table; the meetings favour Villarreal. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Seven of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.47, 74% on the records (Valencia: under 3.5 goals in 3 of 6 at home; Villarreal: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 7). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.19. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Valencia 0-1 Villarreal (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).