RB Leipzig vs SV 07 Elversberg
Match details. RB Leipzig host SV 07 Elversberg at the Leipzig Red Bull Arena in the Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is at 14:30 Lagos time on Sat 24 Oct.
What's at stake. RB Leipzig are 7th on 9 points after 6 games, level with Werder Bremen and 1 point behind SV 07 Elversberg. A win takes them above their opponents. SV 07 Elversberg sit 6th on 10 points after 6 games, level with FSV Mainz 05, and a win takes them above FSV Mainz 05.
Team news. RB Leipzig are without M. Guiu with a hamstring injury and A. Ouedraogo with a shoulder injury. SV 07 Elversberg are missing C. Campbell, L. Seifert and T. Zimmerschied with ankle injuries. F. Onyeka has a foot injury, F. Keidel has a calf injury, and N. Darvich is out with an injury.
Form. RB Leipzig have won five, drawn none and lost five of their last ten games, taking 1.5 points a game. Their last five read L L W W L. SV 07 Elversberg have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, picking up 1.9 points a game. Their form over the last five is W L D L W.
The numbers. RB Leipzig score 2.5 and concede 1.9 a game over their last ten, keeping five clean sheets. They average 15.0 shots (6.5 on target), 5.5 corners and 1.2 cards with 52% of the ball. SV 07 Elversberg score 1.6 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, keeping one clean sheet and going two games without a goal. They average 8.9 shots (4.2 on target), 3.7 corners and 1.8 cards with 44% possession.
Head to head. In the last two meetings, RB Leipzig have won one, drawn none and lost one. Neither game went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in none. They last met on 2 Mar 2014, when it finished RB Leipzig 2-0 SV 07 Elversberg.
The case against. SV 07 Elversberg's record still gives them a 50% chance to win.
The read. RB Leipzig to win. An open game. Both teams' records favour SV 07 Elversberg. Their goals for and against point to an open match, and for me, their records put over 2.5 goals at 75%.
The bets. Best bet: RB Leipzig or Draw at 1.15, 87% on the records (a proven pattern for games read like this one (team or draw)). Leave: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 1.5 (the signs point different ways); Under 5.5 Goals (RB Leipzig are a clear winner, no Unders); RB Leipzig Over 1.5 goals (RB Leipzig's own games don't back it (3 of 6)). Predicted score: RB Leipzig 2-1 SV 07 Elversberg (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).