Mainz vs Werder Bremen
Match details. Mainz host Werder Bremen in the Bundesliga regular season on round 7. Kick-off is Sat 24 Oct, 14:30 Lagos time at MEWA ARENA in Mainz.
What's at stake. Mainz are 5th on 10 points after 6 games, 3 points behind Bayer Leverkusen and level on points with SV Elversberg. A win would take them level on points with Bayer Leverkusen. Werder Bremen are 8th on 9 points after 6 games, level with RB Leipzig and Hamburger SV, with a win taking them above RB Leipzig.
Form. Mainz have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, averaging 1.9 points a game, with a recent form run of W L W L W. Werder Bremen have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, getting 1.2 points a game and showing D D W D W across their last five.
The numbers. Mainz score 2.8 and concede 1.4 a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets. They average 14.5 shots (6.3 on target), 4.8 corners and 1.9 cards a game with 51% of the ball. Werder Bremen score 1.4 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet, averaging 11.4 shots (4.8 on target), 3.7 corners and 1.3 cards a game with 47% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Mainz have won three, drawn two and lost five, with three going over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring in three. Across the last four, Mainz won one, one was drawn and Werder Bremen won two. The last time they met on 15 Mar 2026, Mainz won 2-0 despite having 11 shots to 16, 34% of the ball and three yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game, and their records put over 2.5 goals at 60%. However, seven of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The case against. Werder Bremen's record still gives them 30% to win. Not everything agrees on goals either, as seven of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The read. Mainz to win. A draw is live. An open game. Their goals for and against make Mainz the likelier winners, as Mainz are the stronger side on form and the table, both teams' records favour Mainz, and their records point to an open game with over 2.5 goals at 60%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Over 0.5 first-half goals (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: Mainz 2-1 Werder Bremen (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).