Exeter City vs Fleetwood Town
Match details. League Two, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is Sat 24 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time. It is played at St James Park, Exeter.
What's at stake. Exeter City are 10th on 16 points after 12 games, level on points with Chesterfield, 1 point clear of Accrington ST. A win would take them above Chesterfield. Fleetwood Town are 18th on 14 points after 12 games, level on points with Grimsby, 2 points clear of Colchester. A win would take them above Grimsby.
Form. Exeter City have won four, drawn four and lost two of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W D W. Fleetwood Town have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D W L.
The numbers. Exeter City score 1.4 and concede 0.4 a game in their last five at home, with four clean sheets. Exeter City average 10.5 shots (3.2 on target), 4.2 corners and 1.5 cards a game, with 48% of the ball. Fleetwood Town score 0.8 and concede two a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Fleetwood Town average 14.6 shots (4.0 on target), 5.4 corners and 2.9 cards a game, with 52% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last eight meetings Exeter City have won three, drawn four and lost one. Six of the eight went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, Exeter City won one, two were drawn and Fleetwood Town won one. The last time they met, on 24 Feb 2024, it finished Exeter City 1-1 Fleetwood Town: Exeter City had 6 shots to 15, 58% of the ball, five yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 37%; six of the last eight meetings went over 2.5, and the meetings settle it.
The case against. Fleetwood Town's record still gives them 20% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to a tight game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 37%.
The read. Exeter City to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Exeter City the likelier winners; Exeter City are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Exeter City. Six of the last eight meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Exeter City or Draw at 1.36, 73% on the records (Exeter City unbeaten in 5 of 7; Fleetwood Town failed to win 6 of 7). Backup: 1st Half - GG/NG: No at 1.18. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 3.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Exeter City or Under 2.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Exeter City Over 0.5 goals (Exeter City's own games don't back it (3 of 7)). Predicted score: Exeter City 2-1 Fleetwood Town (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).