Northampton Town vs Colchester United
Match details. League Two, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is Sat 24 Oct, 12:30 Lagos time. It is played at Sixfields Stadium, Northampton.
What's at stake. Northampton Town are 23rd on 10 points after 10 games, 1 point behind Rotherham, 5 points clear of Crawley Town. A win would take them above Rotherham. Colchester United are 19th on 12 points after 11 games, 2 points behind Fleetwood Town, level on points with Port Vale. A win would take them above Fleetwood Town.
Form. Northampton Town have won two, drawn three and lost five of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D L L. Colchester United have won none, drawn six and lost four of their last ten, 0.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D L D D.
The numbers. Northampton Town score 0.7 and concede one a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and four games without a goal. Northampton Town average 11.1 shots (3.5 on target), 5.6 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 45% of the ball. Colchester United score 0.8 and concede two a game in their last six away, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Colchester United average 12.9 shots (3.0 on target), 3.8 corners and 1.6 cards a game, with 52% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last nine meetings Northampton Town have won seven, drawn none and lost two. Six of the nine went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, Northampton Town won four. The last time they met, on 25 Feb 2023, it finished Northampton Town 1-0 Colchester United: Northampton Town had 13 shots to 9, 52% of the ball, eight yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 26%; six of the last nine meetings went over 2.5.
The case against. Colchester United's record still gives them 25% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: six of the last nine meetings went over 2.5.
The read. Northampton Town to win. A tight game. Northampton Town are the stronger side on form and the table; the meetings favour Northampton Town. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 26%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.26, 77% on the records (Northampton Town: under 3.5 goals in 9 of 9; Colchester United: under 3.5 goals in 3 of 5 away). Backup: Northampton Town or Under 2.5 Goals at 1.17. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Northampton Town 1-0 Colchester United (11% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).