Oud-Heverlee Leuven vs Lommel SK
Match details. Pro League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is Sat 24 Oct, 17:15 Lagos time. It is played at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, Heverlee. The referee is J. Boterberg.
What's at stake. Oud-Heverlee Leuven are 15th on 5 points after 8 games, 1 point behind KV Mechelen, 1 point clear of RAAL La Louvière. A win would take them above KV Mechelen. Lommel SK are 10th on 11 points after 8 games, level on points with Standard Liege, 2 points clear of SK Beveren. A win would take them above Standard Liege.
Form. Oud-Heverlee Leuven have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W D L. Lommel SK have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W D L.
The numbers. Oud-Heverlee Leuven score 0.8 and concede 1.3 a game in their last six at home, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Oud-Heverlee Leuven average 10.1 shots (3.6 on target), 4.2 corners and 2.1 cards a game, with 48% of the ball. Lommel SK score 1.3 and concede 1.8 a game in their last six away, with two clean sheets. Lommel SK average 8.9 shots (3.1 on target), 3.7 corners and 1.2 cards a game, with 45% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last nine meetings Oud-Heverlee Leuven have won seven, drawn none and lost two. Five of the nine went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, Oud-Heverlee Leuven won three and Lommel SK won one. The last time they met, on 8 Feb 2020, it finished Oud-Heverlee Leuven 3-0 Lommel SK.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: Lommel SK are the stronger side on form and the table, but both teams' records favour Oud-Heverlee Leuven; the meetings favour Oud-Heverlee Leuven. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 39%; five of the last nine meetings went over 2.5.
The case against. Lommel SK's record still gives them 42% to win.
The read. Oud-Heverlee Leuven to win. Lommel SK are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Oud-Heverlee Leuven; the meetings favour Oud-Heverlee Leuven.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Lommel SK Under 1.5 goals (Oud-Heverlee Leuven's own games don't back it (3 of 6)); Under 4.5 Goals (Oud-Heverlee Leuven are a clear winner, no Unders); Under 5.5 Goals (Oud-Heverlee Leuven are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1-0 Lommel SK (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).