Match details. Premier League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is Mon 19 Oct, 18:00 Lagos time. It is played at Al Masry Club Stadium, Port Said.
What's at stake. Al Masry Club are 12th on 7 points after 6 games, level on points with Olympic El Qanah, level on points with Smouha SC. A win would take them above Olympic El Qanah. Abo Qair Semads are 18th on 3 points after 6 games, 1 point behind Enppi, 1 point clear of El Gouna FC. A win would take them above Enppi.
Form. Al Masry Club have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W L L L. Abo Qair Semads have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D L L L.
The numbers. Al Masry Club score 1.1 and concede 0.9 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and three games without a goal. Al Masry Club average 10.3 shots (3.9 on target), 4.6 corners and 1.7 cards a game, with 58% of the ball. Abo Qair Semads score 0.2 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and four games without a goal. Abo Qair Semads average 6.3 shots (2.0 on target), 4.1 corners and 1.9 cards a game, with 47% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last two meetings Al Masry Club have won one, drawn one and lost none. None of the two went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. The last time they met, on 10 Feb 2022, it finished Al Masry Club 1-1 Abo Qair Semads.
The case against. Abo Qair Semads's record still gives them 33% to win.
The read. Al Masry Club to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Al Masry Club the likelier winners; Al Masry Club are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Al Masry Club. Their xG points to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 25%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.25, 92% on the records (Al Masry Club: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 6; Abo Qair Semads: under 3.5 goals in 6 of 6). Backup: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 at 1.30. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Abo Qair Semads Under 1.5 goals (Al Masry Club's own games don't back it (3 of 6)); Al Masry Club to Win (the signs point different ways); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Al Masry Club 1-0 Abo Qair Semads (15% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).