Match details. Liga de Ascenso. Kick-off is Sun 18 Oct, 22:00 Lagos time.
Form. CD Junior de Managua have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L D D L. FC Esteli have won two, drawn one and lost seven of their last ten, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L D L L.
The numbers. CD Junior de Managua score 1.4 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. CD Junior de Managua average 5.0 corners and 2.2 cards a game. FC Esteli score one and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets. FC Esteli average 4.0 corners and 4.5 cards a game.
The case against. FC Esteli's record still gives them 32% to win.
The read. CD Junior de Managua to win. An open game. CD Junior de Managua are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour CD Junior de Managua. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 67%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: CD Junior de Managua 2-1 FC Esteli (9% chance).
The agreed story. CD Junior de Managua or the draw, an open game.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).