Match details. Serie D, Group G. Kick-off is Sun 18 Oct, 14:00 Lagos time.
Form. ASD Sarnese 1926 have won six, drawn four and lost none of their last ten, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D W W. Citta Di Anagni have won four, drawn one and lost four of their last nine, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W W L.
The numbers. ASD Sarnese 1926 score two and concede 1.2 a game in their last six at home, with no clean sheets. ASD Sarnese 1926 average 11.2 shots (3.6 on target), 4.2 corners and 1.8 cards a game. Citta Di Anagni score 1.3 and concede 1.6 a game over their last nine, with two clean sheets and four games without a goal. Citta Di Anagni average 6.0 corners and 1.0 cards a game.
The case against. Citta Di Anagni's record still gives them 21% to win.
The read. ASD Sarnese 1926 to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make ASD Sarnese 1926 the likelier winners; ASD Sarnese 1926 are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour ASD Sarnese 1926. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 67%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: ASD Sarnese 1926 or Under 2.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: ASD Sarnese 1926 2-1 Citta Di Anagni (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).