Match details. Serie C, Group B. Kick-off is Sun 18 Oct, 13:30 Lagos time.
Form. Ravenna FC 1913 have won seven, drawn two and lost one of their last ten, 2.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W W W. Spezia Calcio have won nine, drawn one and lost none of their last ten, 2.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W W.
The numbers. Ravenna FC 1913 score 2.6 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Ravenna FC 1913 average 13.4 shots (5.0 on target), 6.3 corners and 1.1 cards a game. Spezia Calcio score 1.8 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. Spezia Calcio average 12.4 shots (5.0 on target), 5.9 corners and 2.0 cards a game.
The case against. Ravenna FC 1913's record still gives them 33% to win.
The read. Spezia Calcio to win. A tight game. Spezia Calcio are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Spezia Calcio. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 50%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.27, 74% on the records (Ravenna FC 1913: under 3.5 goals in 7 of 9; Spezia Calcio: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 5 away). Backup: Spezia Calcio or Under 2.5 Goals at 1.28. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Spezia Calcio or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Spezia Calcio Over 0.5 goals (Ravenna FC 1913's own games don't back it (4 of 9)); Ravenna FC 1913 Under 1.5 goals (Ravenna FC 1913's own games don't back it (4 of 9)). Predicted score: Ravenna FC 1913 0-1 Spezia Calcio (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).