Lincoln City vs Burnley
Match details. Championship, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is Sat 24 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time. It is played at Sincil Bank, Lincoln.
What's at stake. Lincoln City are 18th on 12 points after 11 games, 2 points behind Charlton, 1 point clear of Cardiff. A win would take them above Charlton. Burnley are 22nd on 8 points after 11 games, 1 point behind Norwich, 2 points clear of Derby. A win would take them above Norwich.
Team news. Lincoln City are without T. Darikwa (knee injury), F. Draper (yellow cards), D. Elerewe (red card), M. Melia (thigh injury), T. Darikwa (knee injury), F. Draper (yellow cards). Burnley are without A. Ahmedhodzic (knock), A. Barnes (muscle injury), J. Beyer (hamstring injury), B. Humphreys (muscle injury), H. Mejbri (hamstring injury), M. Obafemi (inactive).
Form. Lincoln City have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L L L W. Burnley have won one, drawn five and lost four of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D W D L.
The numbers. Lincoln City score 0.7 and concede 1.8 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and four games without a goal. Lincoln City average 11.8 shots (2.8 on target), 3.6 corners and 3.1 cards a game, with 35% of the ball. Burnley score 1.4 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. Burnley average 14.0 shots (4.1 on target), 4.6 corners and 2.1 cards a game, with 48% of the ball.
Head to head. The last time they met, on 18 Feb 2017, it finished Lincoln City 1-0 Burnley: Lincoln City had 5 shots to 17, 41% of the ball, four yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 56%.
The case against. Lincoln City's record still gives them 39% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 56%.
The read. Burnley or the draw. A draw is live. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.36, 73% on the records (Lincoln City: under 3.5 goals in 7 of 9; Burnley: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 9). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.13. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Lincoln City 1-1 Burnley (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).