Gaziantep FK vs Erzurumspor FK
Match details. Super Lig, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is Sat 24 Oct, 14:00 Lagos time. It is played at Gaziantep Stadyumu. The referee is M. Dakan.
What's at stake. Gaziantep FK are 14th on 8 points after 8 games, 1 point behind Göztepe, level on points with Gençlerbirliği S.K.. A win would take them above Göztepe. Erzurumspor FK are 11th on 11 points after 8 games, level on points with Başakşehir, 1 point clear of Rizespor. A win would take them above Başakşehir.
Team news. Gaziantep FK are without F. Bavuk (hamstring injury), N. Sangare (back injury), U. Meleke (injury), F. Bavuk (hamstring injury), N. Sangare (back injury), U. Meleke (injury).
Form. Gaziantep FK have won two, drawn two and lost four of their last eight, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L D W. In this competition Gaziantep FK have gone L L L D W L. Erzurumspor FK have won three, drawn two and lost three of their last eight, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W L W. In this competition Erzurumspor FK have gone W D W L W D.
The numbers. Gaziantep FK score one and concede 1.5 a game over their last eight, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. Gaziantep FK average 12.8 shots (3.2 on target), 4.4 corners and 2.6 cards a game, with 50% of the ball. Erzurumspor FK score 0.6 and concede 1.4 a game over their last eight, with four clean sheets and four games without a goal. Erzurumspor FK average 9.5 shots (3.0 on target), 3.1 corners and 1.4 cards a game, with 43% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last four meetings Gaziantep FK have won none, drawn two and lost two. Three of the four went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. The last time they met, on 25 Apr 2021, it finished Gaziantep FK 2-3 Erzurumspor FK: Gaziantep FK had 14 shots to 12, 64% of the ball, three yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%; three of the last four meetings went over 2.5.
The case against. Erzurumspor FK's record still gives them 45% to win. The meetings do not back them.
The read. Gaziantep FK or the draw. Erzurumspor FK are the stronger side on form and the table; the meetings favour Erzurumspor FK.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Gaziantep FK Over 0.5 goals (Erzurumspor FK's own games don't back it (4 of 8)). Predicted score: Gaziantep FK 1-1 Erzurumspor FK (14% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).