COCFO

19:45Sun 18 Oct

FCA

CF Os Belenenses vs FC Arouca

CLASS A

THE READ

Match details. Taca de Portugal, Round of 64. Kick-off is Sun 18 Oct, 19:45 Lagos time. It is played at Estádio do Restelo, Lisboa.

What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.

Form. CF Os Belenenses have won seven, drawn two and lost one of their last ten, 2.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W W W. In this competition CF Os Belenenses have gone W W. FC Arouca have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D L D W.

The numbers. CF Os Belenenses score 1.9 and concede 0.6 a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets and two games without a goal. CF Os Belenenses average 13.5 shots (5.6 on target), 4.8 corners and 2.1 cards a game. FC Arouca score 1.2 and concede one a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. FC Arouca average 10.5 shots (3.8 on target), 3.1 corners and 3.2 cards a game, with 49% of the ball.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 13% against the records' 45%.

The read. No firm call: CF Os Belenenses are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Their goals for and against make CF Os Belenenses the likelier winners; CF Os Belenenses are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 49%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: CF Os Belenenses 1-1 FC Arouca (13% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

GOALS

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.13

CFO 9 of 10 (90%) · FCA 5 of 5 (100%)95.6%

CF Os Belenenses: under 4.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · FC Arouca: under 4.5 goals in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 95% · each game weighed by who it was against

HALVES

1st Half Under 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.45

CFO 9 of 10 (90%) · FCA 4 of 5 (80%)80.4%

CF Os Belenenses: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · FC Arouca: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 74% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

1st Half Over 0.5 GoalsLEANHELD · the odds board 74%

1.35

CFO 7 of 10 (70%) · FCA 1 of 5 (20%)52.8%

CF Os Belenenses: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · FC Arouca: the bet landed in 1 of 5 away · both last 10: 65% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

Left off the list: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 12.9%

CF Os Belenenses goals →

FC Arouca goals ↓

0-010%

1-013%

2-010%

3-05%

4-02%

5-00.6%

0-17%

1-113%

2-19%

3-15%

4-12%

5-10.5%

0-24%

1-26%

2-24%

3-22%

4-20.8%

5-20.2%

0-31%

1-32%

2-31%

3-30.6%

4-30.2%

5-30.1%

0-40.2%

1-40.4%

2-40.3%

3-40.1%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.0%

1-50.1%

2-50.1%

3-50.0%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

CF OS BELENENSESLDWWWWWWWD2.30 PPG

FC AROUCAWWWWLWDLDW2.00 PPG

THE NUMBERS

CF OS BELENENSES HOMExFC AROUCA AWAY

1.90SCORED A GAME1.700.60CONCEDED A GAME0.9050%CLEAN SHEETS40%0%FAILED TO SCORE25%4.80CORNERS A GAME3.122.10CARDS A GAME3.25

THE BANK

THE BANKER MENU

DRAW OR FC AROUCA (1UP)

–

137 OF 146

NO PRICE YET

The tips call a clear winner and every tip has the favourite winning by 2+.

Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.

THE QUALITY READ

2.67POINTS A GAME1.75+1.83GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+0.50–SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST-0.82.6LAST 5: POINTS A GAME1.66LEAGUE GAMES8

CF Os Belenenses: the quality side - more points a game, a better goal difference, better form (last 5).

CF OS BELENENSES 2:0 HANDICAP

–

389 OF 413

NO PRICE YET

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

63%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

60%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

95%

VERY GOOD · 85/90

CF OS BELENENSES OR DRAW

85%

VERY GOOD · 80/85

FC AROUCA OR DRAW

42%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (6 and 8 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

CF OS BELENENSESxFC AROUCA

5GAMES52.80SCORED A GAME1.200.80CONCEDED A GAME1.003.6GOALS IN THEIR GAMES2.280%OVER 1.5 GOALS60%80%OVER 2.5 GOALS60%60%BOTH SCORE60%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES6.2–CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES7.8

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TRENDS

CF Os Belenenses have scored in 80% of their games.

FC Arouca have scored in 80% of their games.

CF Os Belenenses failed to score in 0% of their games.

FC Arouca failed to score in 25% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstcornerscards