SC Salgueiros vs Estoril Praia

Match details. Taca de Portugal, Round of 64. Kick-off is Sun 18 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time. It is played at Complexo Desportivo de Campanhã, Porto.

What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.

Form. SC Salgueiros have won three, drawn five and lost two of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W D W. In this competition SC Salgueiros have gone W W. Estoril Praia have won none, drawn three and lost seven of their last ten, 0.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L D L.

The numbers. SC Salgueiros score one and concede 0.8 a game in their last six at home, with two clean sheets. SC Salgueiros average 11.0 shots (3.7 on target), 4.2 corners and 2.2 cards a game. Estoril Praia score 0.6 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Estoril Praia average 13.0 shots (5.0 on target), 4.9 corners and 2.6 cards a game, with 46% of the ball.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 13% against the records' 60%.

The read. No firm call: SC Salgueiros are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. SC Salgueiros are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour SC Salgueiros. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 27%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Estoril Praia or Under 2.5 Goals (the call backs SC Salgueiros); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: SC Salgueiros 1-0 Estoril Praia (14% chance).