Match details. Taca de Portugal, Round of 64. Kick-off is Sun 18 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time. It is played at Estádio João Cardoso, Tondela.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. CD Tondela have won six, drawn none and lost four of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W L. In this competition CD Tondela have gone W. Alverca Futebol have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W L D.
The numbers. CD Tondela score 1.6 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. CD Tondela average 12.0 shots (4.0 on target), 5.3 corners and 3.8 cards a game. Alverca Futebol score 1.6 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Alverca Futebol average 12.1 shots (4.1 on target), 4.8 corners and 2.5 cards a game, with 43% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last four meetings CD Tondela have won none, drawn two and lost two. One of the four went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. The last time they met, on 13 Feb 2026, it finished CD Tondela 1-1 Alverca Futebol: CD Tondela had 18 shots to 10, 60% of the ball, ten yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 31% against the records' 54%. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 45%; three of the last four meetings went under 2.5.
The read. No firm call: CD Tondela are the better side, but not at this price. Their goals for and against make CD Tondela the likelier winners; CD Tondela are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour CD Tondela.
The bets. No bet on this one: too close to call. Leave: Alverca Futebol win or both teams score (the call backs CD Tondela); Alverca Futebol or Over 1.5 Goals (the call backs CD Tondela). Predicted score: CD Tondela 1-1 Alverca Futebol (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).