CMCDM

15:00Sun 18 Oct

SAN

CD Mafra vs Santa Clara Azores

CLASS A

THE READ

Match details. Taca de Portugal, Round of 64. Kick-off is Sun 18 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time. It is played at Estadio Municipal de Mafra.

What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.

Form. CD Mafra have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L W L D. Santa Clara Azores have won six, drawn three and lost one of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W W D.

The numbers. CD Mafra score 2.4 and concede one a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. CD Mafra average 14.9 shots (6.5 on target), 6.9 corners and 3.1 cards a game. Santa Clara Azores score one and concede 0.6 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. Santa Clara Azores average 13.2 shots (3.5 on target), 4.1 corners and 2.9 cards a game, with 47% of the ball.

Head to head. In the last two meetings CD Mafra have won one, drawn none and lost one. None of the two went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in none. The last time they met, on 12 May 2024, it finished CD Mafra 0-2 Santa Clara Azores: none yellow cards.

The case against. CD Mafra's record still gives them 35% to win.

The read. Santa Clara Azores to win. A tight game. Santa Clara Azores are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 42%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: CD Mafra Under 1.5 goals (CD Mafra's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Under 4.5 Goals (Santa Clara Azores are a clear winner, no Unders); Under 5.5 Goals (Santa Clara Azores are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: CD Mafra 0-1 Santa Clara Azores (8% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

HALVES

Over 0.5 first-half goalsLEANHELD · the odds board 78%

1.29

CDM 3 of 5 (60%) · SAN 2 of 5 (40%)54.8%

CD Mafra: the bet landed in 3 of 5 at home · Santa Clara Azores: the bet landed in 2 of 5 away · both last 10: 64% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

Left off the list: CD Mafra Under 1.5 goals (CD Mafra's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Under 4.5 Goals (Santa Clara Azores are a clear winner - no Unders); Under 5.5 Goals (Santa Clara Azores are a clear winner - no Unders); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 0–1 8.5%

CD Mafra goals →

Santa Clara Azores goals ↓

0-09%

1-011%

2-08%

3-04%

4-01%

5-00.4%

0-18%

1-113%

2-19%

3-14%

4-11%

5-10.4%

0-25%

1-27%

2-25%

3-22%

4-20.8%

5-20.2%

0-32%

1-33%

2-32%

3-30.8%

4-30.3%

5-30.1%

0-40.5%

1-40.7%

2-40.5%

3-40.2%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.1%

1-50.2%

2-50.1%

3-50.0%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

CD MAFRAWWDLWDLWLD1.50 PPG

SANTA CLARA AZORESWLDWWDWWDW2.10 PPG

THE NUMBERS

CD MAFRA HOMExSANTA CLARA AZORES AWAY

1.80SCORED A GAME1.401.30CONCEDED A GAME0.5020%CLEAN SHEETS60%0%FAILED TO SCORE12%6.90CORNERS A GAME4.123.10CARDS A GAME2.88

THE BANK

THE BANKER MENU

DRAW OR SANTA CLARA AZORES (1UP)

–

137 OF 146

NO PRICE YET

The tips call a clear winner and every tip has the favourite winning by 2+.

OVER 1.5 CARDS

–

718 OF 767

NO PRICE YET

The Bank expects 4.5+ cards.

Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.

THE QUALITY READ

1.00POINTS A GAME2.43-0.20GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+1.14–SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+1.71.0LAST 5: POINTS A GAME2.25LEAGUE GAMES7

Santa Clara Azores: the quality side - more points a game, a better goal difference, better form (last 5).

SANTA CLARA AZORES 0:2 HANDICAP

–

373 OF 433

NO PRICE YET

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

59%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

41%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

98%

VERY GOOD · 85/90

CD MAFRA OR DRAW

63%

NO · 80/85

SANTA CLARA AZORES OR DRAW

78%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (5 and 7 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

CD MAFRAxSANTA CLARA AZORES

5GAMES51.20SCORED A GAME1.601.40CONCEDED A GAME0.402.6GOALS IN THEIR GAMES2.080%OVER 1.5 GOALS60%60%OVER 2.5 GOALS40%80%BOTH SCORE40%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES5.6–CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES10.2

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 2

CD MAFRA 1 · 50%DRAW 0SANTA CLARA AZORES 1 · 50%

2024-01-06CD Mafra 1 – 0 Santa Clara Azores

2024-05-12CD Mafra 0 – 2 Santa Clara Azores

TRENDS

CD Mafra have scored in 100% of their games.

Santa Clara Azores have scored in 80% of their games.

CD Mafra kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.

Santa Clara Azores kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetshead to headcornerscards