Alcochetense vs Maritimo Madeira
Match details. Taca de Portugal, Round of 64. Kick-off is Sun 18 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time. It is played at Estádio António Almeida Correia, Alcochete.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Alcochetense have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W D W. In this competition Alcochetense have gone W W. Maritimo Madeira have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D L L L.
The numbers. Alcochetense score 2.8 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Alcochetense average 9.7 shots (4.2 on target), 6.7 corners and 3.3 cards a game. Maritimo Madeira score one and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets. Maritimo Madeira average 10.0 shots (3.2 on target), 2.9 corners and 1.8 cards a game, with 45% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 12% against the records' 52%.
The read. No firm call: Alcochetense are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Alcochetense the likelier winners; Alcochetense are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Alcochetense. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 52%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Alcochetense 2-1 Maritimo Madeira (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).