Pistoiese FC vs Pavia Calcio 1911
Match details. Serie D, Group D. Kick-off is Sun 18 Oct, 14:00 Lagos time.
Form. Pistoiese FC have won eight, drawn one and lost one of their last ten, 2.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W W W. Pavia Calcio 1911 have won two, drawn six and lost two of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L L D D.
The numbers. Pistoiese FC score 2.5 and concede 0.2 a game in their last six at home, with five clean sheets. Pistoiese FC average 8.6 shots (4.0 on target), 4.6 corners and 2.0 cards a game. Pavia Calcio 1911 score 0.8 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five away, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. Pavia Calcio 1911 average 5.8 shots (1.8 on target), 3.8 corners and 2.8 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 85% against the records' 48%.
The read. No firm call: Pistoiese FC are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Pistoiese FC the likelier winners; Pistoiese FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Pistoiese FC. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 36%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Pistoiese FC Over 0.5 Goals (Pavia Calcio 1911's own games don't back it (3 of 7)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Pistoiese FC Over 1.5 Goals (Pavia Calcio 1911's own games don't back it (2 of 7)). Predicted score: Pistoiese FC 1-0 Pavia Calcio 1911 (12% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).