Match details. Serie D, Group A. Kick-off is Sun 18 Oct, 14:00 Lagos time.
Form. US Fezzanese 1930 have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L L W. Asd Millesimo have won six, drawn none and lost four of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L W L.
The numbers. US Fezzanese 1930 score 1.1 and concede 1.7 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and four games without a goal. US Fezzanese 1930 average 2.5 corners and 4.0 cards a game. Asd Millesimo score 0.8 and concede two a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and three games without a goal. Asd Millesimo average 11.7 shots (6.3 on target), 6.7 corners and 1.0 cards a game.
The case against. US Fezzanese 1930's record still gives them 32% to win.
The read. Asd Millesimo to win. A tight game. Asd Millesimo are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Asd Millesimo. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 44%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: US Fezzanese 1930 0-1 Asd Millesimo (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).