Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna D
Match details. 3. Liga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is Sat 24 Oct, 13:00 Lagos time. It is played at Ostseestadion, Rostock.
What's at stake. Hansa Rostock are 6th on 15 points after 10 games, 1 point behind Hoffenheim II, 1 point clear of Stuttgart II. A win would take them above Hoffenheim II. Fortuna D are 10th on 14 points after 10 games, level on points with FC Ingolstadt 04, 1 point clear of Waldhof Mannheim. A win would take them above FC Ingolstadt 04.
Form. Hansa Rostock have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W D W. In this competition Hansa Rostock have gone L L W D W L. Fortuna D have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D L W. In this competition Fortuna D have gone L W D L W W.
The numbers. Hansa Rostock score 1.7 and concede 1.9 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. Hansa Rostock average 14.1 shots (5.0 on target), 5.8 corners and 3.4 cards a game, with 50% of the ball. Fortuna D score one and concede one a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Fortuna D average 14.4 shots (4.0 on target), 4.9 corners and 2.6 cards a game, with 55% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last nine meetings Hansa Rostock have won two, drawn none and lost seven. Seven of the nine went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, Fortuna D won four. The last time they met, on 25 Feb 2024, it finished Hansa Rostock 0-2 Fortuna D: Hansa Rostock had 13 shots to 17, 46% of the ball, one yellow card.
The case against. Hansa Rostock's record still gives them 34% to win.
The read. Fortuna D to win. An open game. Both teams' records favour Fortuna D; the meetings favour Fortuna D. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 62%. Seven of the last nine meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.18, 75% on the records (Hansa Rostock: over 1.5 goals in 10 of 10; Fortuna D: over 1.5 goals in 3 of 5 away). Backup: Under 2.5 first-half goals at 1.15. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Hansa Rostock or Over 1.5 Goals (the call backs Fortuna D). Predicted score: Hansa Rostock 1-2 Fortuna D (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).