Match details. Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is Fri 23 Oct, 19:00 Lagos time. It is played at Stade Marcel Tribut, Dunkirk.
What's at stake. USL Dunkerque are 10th on 11 points after 9 games, 1 point behind Dijon, level on points with Sochaux. A win would take them above Dijon. Metz are 7th on 13 points after 9 games, 1 point behind PAU, level on points with Annecy. A win would take them above PAU.
Form. USL Dunkerque have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L W D. Metz have won three, drawn five and lost two of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D L W.
The numbers. USL Dunkerque score 1.4 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. USL Dunkerque average 9.6 shots (3.8 on target), 5.1 corners and 2.9 cards a game, with 47% of the ball. Metz score 0.6 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. Metz average 11.5 shots (4.4 on target), 4.4 corners and 1.8 cards a game, with 54% of the ball.
Head to head. Metz have won all of the last four meetings. Two of the four went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. The last time they met, on 17 May 2025, it finished USL Dunkerque 0-1 Metz.
The case against. USL Dunkerque's record still gives them 24% to win.
The read. Metz to win. An open game. Metz are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Metz; the meetings favour Metz. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 51%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.21, 76% on the records (USL Dunkerque: over 1.5 goals in 3 of 5 at home; Metz: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5). Backup: Metz win or both teams score at 1.22. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: USL Dunkerque 1-2 Metz (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).