Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka
Match details. J1 League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is Wed 21 Oct, 11:00 Lagos time. It is played at Toyota Stadium.
What's at stake. Nagoya Grampus are 12th on 12 points after 10 games, 1 point behind Fagiano Okayama, level on points with Cerezo Osaka. A win would take them above Fagiano Okayama. Cerezo Osaka are 13th on 12 points after 10 games, level on points with Nagoya Grampus, 3 points clear of Mito Hollyhock. A win would take them above Nagoya Grampus.
Form. Nagoya Grampus have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W W L. Cerezo Osaka have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D W W.
The numbers. Nagoya Grampus score 1.5 and concede 1.9 a game over their last ten, with no clean sheets and three games without a goal. Nagoya Grampus average 12.8 shots (3.9 on target), 5.0 corners and 1.2 cards a game, with 56% of the ball. Cerezo Osaka score 1.4 and concede 2.2 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets. Cerezo Osaka average 13.4 shots (3.4 on target), 5.6 corners and 2.1 cards a game, with 54% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Nagoya Grampus have won five, drawn one and lost four. Eight of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in eight. In the last four, Nagoya Grampus won two, one was drawn and Cerezo Osaka won one. The last time they met, on 17 May 2026, it finished Nagoya Grampus 1-6 Cerezo Osaka: Nagoya Grampus had 12 shots to 15, 58% of the ball, one yellow card.
The case against. Cerezo Osaka's record still gives them 35% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 58%. Not everything agrees on goals: eight of the last ten meetings went over 2.5.
The read. Nagoya Grampus to win. A draw is live. A tight game. Nagoya Grampus are the stronger side on form and the table.
The bets. Best bet: Cerezo Osaka Under 1.5 Goals at 1.63, 66% on the records (Cerezo Osaka scored under 1.5 in 5 of 7; Nagoya Grampus conceded under 1.5 in 4 of 7). Backup: Nagoya Grampus or Under 2.5 Goals at 1.37. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Under 3.5 Goals (Nagoya Grampus are a clear winner, no Unders); Nagoya Grampus or draw and under 3.5 goals (Nagoya Grampus are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: Nagoya Grampus 1-0 Cerezo Osaka (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).