Vitoria SC Guimaraes vs Maritimo Madeira
Match details. Liga Portugal, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is Fri 23 Oct, 20:45 Lagos time. It is played at Estádio D. Afonso Henriques, Guimarães. The referee is Diogo Rosa.
What's at stake. Vitoria SC Guimaraes are 15th on 5 points after 8 games, 2 points behind Rio Ave, 1 point clear of Nacional. A win would take them above Rio Ave. Maritimo Madeira are 11th on 8 points after 8 games, 2 points behind Estrela, level on points with Moreirense. A win would take them above Estrela.
Form. Vitoria SC Guimaraes have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D L D. Maritimo Madeira have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D L L.
The numbers. Vitoria SC Guimaraes score 0.6 and concede 1.2 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and five games without a goal. Vitoria SC Guimaraes average 13.8 shots (4.9 on target), 5.8 corners and 3.0 cards a game, with 54% of the ball. Maritimo Madeira score 1.4 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets. Maritimo Madeira average 7.9 shots (3.4 on target), 2.9 corners and 2.2 cards a game, with 45% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Vitoria SC Guimaraes have won eight, drawn two and lost none. Three of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. In the last four, Vitoria SC Guimaraes won four. The last time they met, on 29 Apr 2023, it finished Vitoria SC Guimaraes 2-1 Maritimo Madeira: Vitoria SC Guimaraes had 11 shots to 20, 45% of the ball, seven yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Vitoria SC Guimaraes the likelier winners, but Maritimo Madeira are the stronger side on form and the table; the meetings favour Vitoria SC Guimaraes.
The case against. Maritimo Madeira's record still gives them 32% to win.
The read. Vitoria SC Guimaraes or the draw. A draw is live. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Vitoria SC Guimaraes the likelier winners; Maritimo Madeira are the stronger side on form and the table; the meetings favour Vitoria SC Guimaraes. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 47%. Seven of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.33, 76% on the records (Vitoria SC Guimaraes: under 3.5 goals in 8 of 9; Maritimo Madeira: under 3.5 goals in 3 of 5). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.11. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Vitoria SC Guimaraes Over 0.5 goals (Vitoria SC Guimaraes's own games don't back it (4 of 9)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Vitoria SC Guimaraes 1-1 Maritimo Madeira (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).