Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu
Match details. J2 League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is Wed 21 Oct, 11:00 Lagos time. It is played at Denka Big Swan Stadium, Niigata.
What's at stake. Albirex Niigata are 3rd on 20 points after 11 games, level on points with Omiya Ardija, 1 point clear of Kataller Toyama. A win would take them above Omiya Ardija. Sagan Tosu are 12th on 14 points after 11 games, level on points with Jubilo Iwata, level on points with Tokushima Vortis. A win would take them above Jubilo Iwata.
Form. Albirex Niigata have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D W D W. In this competition Albirex Niigata have gone L D W D W W. Sagan Tosu have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L L L. In this competition Sagan Tosu have gone W W L L L L.
The numbers. Albirex Niigata score 1.6 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Sagan Tosu score 0.4 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and four games without a goal.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Albirex Niigata have won four, drawn two and lost four. Four of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, Albirex Niigata won one, one was drawn and Sagan Tosu won two. The last time they met, on 6 Jul 2024, it finished Albirex Niigata 3-4 Sagan Tosu: Albirex Niigata had 19 shots to 17, 58% of the ball, three yellow cards.
The read. No side to back. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 46%. Six of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.25, 72% on the records (Albirex Niigata: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home; Sagan Tosu: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 away). Backup: Albirex Niigata Over 0.5 Goals at 1.45. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Albirex Niigata or Under 2.5 Goals (no side to back); Sagan Tosu Over 0.5 goals (Sagan Tosu's own games don't back it (1 of 5)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Albirex Niigata 1-1 Sagan Tosu (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).