Inter vs Shakhtar D

Match details. Inter host Shakhtar D in the UEFA Champions League, League Stage - 3. The match takes place at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan on Wed 21 Oct, kicking off at 20:00 Lagos time. Harm Osmers is the referee for this one.

What's at stake. Inter sit 31st on 0 points after 2 games, 1 point behind Slavia Praha and level on points with Lask Linz. A win takes them above Slavia Praha. Shakhtar D are 14th on 4 points after 2 games, level on points with AS Roma and Atletico Madrid, and a win pushes them above AS Roma.

Team news. Inter are missing C. Jones, L. Martinez and B. Pavard with thigh injuries, while J. Stones is also out injured. Shakhtar D travel without I. Azarovi due to a knee injury, Eguinaldo with a shoulder issue, K. Fesyun through illness, A. Ghram with an injury, Marlon with a muscle injury, and V. Korniyenko who is off the roster.

Form. Inter have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, taking 2.0 points a game, but they have gone L L in this competition. Their last five overall read W L W D W. Shakhtar D have won eight, drawn one and lost one of their last ten, averaging 2.5 points a game, with W D in this competition. They come in on a five-game winning run of W W W W W.

The numbers. At home, Inter score 3.6 and concede two a game across their last five, keeping one clean sheet. They average 23.8 shots (8.1 on target), 6.6 corners and 1.8 cards a game, with 61% of the ball. Shakhtar D score two and concede 0.4 a game in their last five away, with three clean sheets. They average 12.8 shots (3.9 on target), 5.5 corners and 2.3 cards with 61% possession.

Head to head. Across the last five meetings, Inter have won two, drawn three and lost none, with one game over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring in none. In the last four, Inter won one and three ended in draws. They last met on 24 Nov 2021, when Inter won 2-0 at home with 21 shots to 7, 42% of the ball and one yellow card.

Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game, and their records put over 2.5 goals at 64%. However, four of the last five meetings went under 2.5, and the head-to-head record settles it for me.

The case against. Not everything agrees on goals here. Their goals for and against point to an open game, and their overall records put over 2.5 goals at 64%.

The read. No side to back. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Four of the last five meetings went under 2.5.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Inter or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Inter 1-1 Shakhtar D (10% chance).