ONOFC

13:00Sun 18 Oct

PFC

OFC Nesebar vs PFC CSKA Sofia

CLASS D

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THE READ

Match details. Bulgarian Cup, Round of 32. Kick-off is Sun 18 Oct, 13:00 Lagos time.

What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.

Form. OFC Nesebar have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L W D W. PFC CSKA Sofia have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D W W.

The numbers. OFC Nesebar score 2.7 and concede 0.8 a game in their last six at home, with three clean sheets. OFC Nesebar average 10.0 shots (5.4 on target), 4.3 corners and 1.6 cards a game. PFC CSKA Sofia score 1.8 and concede 1.5 a game in their last six away, with one clean sheet. PFC CSKA Sofia average 18.7 shots (7.0 on target), 6.0 corners and 2.7 cards a game, with 57% of the ball.

Head to head. The last time they met, on 19 Sep 2017, it finished OFC Nesebar 1-4 PFC CSKA Sofia.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 9% against the records' 41%. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%.

The read. No firm call: OFC Nesebar are the better side, but not at this price. Their goals for and against make OFC Nesebar the likelier winners; OFC Nesebar are the stronger side on form and the table.

The bets. No bet on this one: too close to call. Leave: PFC CSKA Sofia or Over 1.5 Goals (the call backs OFC Nesebar). Predicted score: OFC Nesebar 1-1 PFC CSKA Sofia (10% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

OFC Nesebar or Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

OFC 5 of 6 (83%) · PFC 6 of 6 (100%)91.1%

OFC Nesebar: the bet landed in 5 of 6 at home · PFC CSKA Sofia: the bet landed in 6 of 6 away · both last 10: 90%

GOALS

Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.17

OFC 5 of 6 (83%) · PFC 6 of 6 (100%)89.4%

OFC Nesebar: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 6 at home · PFC CSKA Sofia: over 1.5 goals in 6 of 6 away · both last 10: 85%

Under 5.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.11

OFC 4 of 6 (67%) · PFC 5 of 6 (83%)78.3%

OFC Nesebar: under 5.5 goals in 4 of 6 at home · PFC CSKA Sofia: under 5.5 goals in 5 of 6 away · both last 10: 85%

Under 4.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.21

OFC 4 of 6 (67%) · PFC 4 of 6 (67%)69.4%

OFC Nesebar: under 4.5 goals in 4 of 6 at home · PFC CSKA Sofia: under 4.5 goals in 4 of 6 away · both last 10: 75%

HALVES

Over 0.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.24

OFC 5 of 6 (83%) · PFC 6 of 6 (100%)87.8%

OFC Nesebar: the bet landed in 5 of 6 at home · PFC CSKA Sofia: the bet landed in 6 of 6 away · both last 10: 80% · on half-time scores

Left off the list: PFC CSKA Sofia or Over 1.5 Goals (the call backs OFC Nesebar)

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 10.1%

OFC Nesebar goals →

PFC CSKA Sofia goals ↓

0-04%

1-07%

2-07%

3-05%

4-02%

5-01.0%

0-14%

1-110%

2-110%

3-16%

4-13%

5-11%

0-23%

1-26%

2-26%

3-24%

4-22%

5-20.8%

0-31%

1-33%

2-33%

3-32%

4-30.9%

5-30.4%

0-40.4%

1-40.9%

2-40.9%

3-40.6%

4-40.3%

5-40.1%

0-50.1%

1-50.2%

2-50.2%

3-50.2%

4-50.1%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).

FORM · LAST 10

OFC NESEBARWWWDLWDWLD1.80 PPG

PFC CSKA SOFIALLWDWWWDWL1.70 PPG

THE NUMBERS

OFC NESEBAR HOMExPFC CSKA SOFIA AWAY

1.80SCORED A GAME1.900.90CONCEDED A GAME1.5030%CLEAN SHEETS10%25%FAILED TO SCORE9%4.29CORNERS A GAME6.001.57CARDS A GAME2.71

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

1.20POINTS A GAME2.10+0.00GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+1.00–SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+7.21.2LAST 5: POINTS A GAME2.25LEAGUE GAMES10

PFC CSKA Sofia: the quality side - more points a game, a better goal difference, better form (last 5).

PFC CSKA SOFIA 0:2 HANDICAP

–

373 OF 433

NO PRICE YET

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

90%

VERY GOOD · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

42%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

91%

VERY GOOD · 85/90

OFC NESEBAR OR DRAW

84%

OKAY · 80/85

PFC CSKA SOFIA OR DRAW

76%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (5 and 10 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

OFC NESEBARxPFC CSKA SOFIA

5GAMES50.80SCORED A GAME2.200.80CONCEDED A GAME0.801.6GOALS IN THEIR GAMES3.060%OVER 1.5 GOALS100%20%OVER 2.5 GOALS40%60%BOTH SCORE80%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES5.2–CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES8.2

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 1

OFC NESEBAR 0 · 0%DRAW 0PFC CSKA SOFIA 1 · 100%

2017-09-19OFC Nesebar 1 – 4 PFC CSKA Sofia

TRENDS

OFC Nesebar have scored in 70% of their games.

PFC CSKA Sofia have scored in 80% of their games.

OFC Nesebar kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

PFC CSKA Sofia kept a clean sheet in 10% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetshead to headcornerscards