FFFCF

13:00Sun 18 Oct

POF

FC Fratria Varna vs POFC Botev Vratsa

CLASS D

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THE READ

Match details. Bulgarian Cup, Round of 32. Kick-off is Sun 18 Oct, 13:00 Lagos time.

What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.

Form. FC Fratria Varna have won five, drawn four and lost one of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W W D. In this competition FC Fratria Varna have gone W. POFC Botev Vratsa have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L D D W.

The numbers. FC Fratria Varna score 1.7 and concede 0.9 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets. FC Fratria Varna average 9.5 shots (3.8 on target), 6.7 corners and 1.7 cards a game. POFC Botev Vratsa score one and concede 2.5 a game in their last six away, with no clean sheets and three games without a goal. POFC Botev Vratsa average 9.5 shots (3.9 on target), 4.2 corners and 2.6 cards a game.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 28% against the records' 57%.

The read. No firm call: FC Fratria Varna are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make FC Fratria Varna the likelier winners; FC Fratria Varna are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour FC Fratria Varna. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 56%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: FC Fratria Varna 2-1 POFC Botev Vratsa (10% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

GOALS

Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.33

FCF 9 of 10 (90%) · POF 6 of 6 (100%)90%

FC Fratria Varna: over 1.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · POFC Botev Vratsa: over 1.5 goals in 6 of 6 away · both last 10: 80%

POFC BOTEV VRATSA GOALS

POFC Botev Vratsa Under 1.5 goalsIN CODES

1.66

FCF 4 of 6 (67%) · POF 7 of 10 (70%)70.6%

POFC Botev Vratsa scored under 1.5 in 4 of 6 away · FC Fratria Varna conceded under 1.5 in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75%

HALVES

2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY

1.25

FCF 9 of 10 (90%) · POF 6 of 6 (100%)91.7%

FC Fratria Varna: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · POFC Botev Vratsa: the bet landed in 6 of 6 away · both last 10: 85% · on half-time scores

Left off the list: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10)); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 2–1 9.9%

FC Fratria Varna goals →

POFC Botev Vratsa goals ↓

0-05%

1-09%

2-010%

3-07%

4-04%

5-02%

0-14%

1-110%

2-110%

3-17%

4-14%

5-12%

0-22%

1-25%

2-25%

3-23%

4-22%

5-20.8%

0-30.7%

1-32%

2-32%

3-31%

4-30.6%

5-30.2%

0-40.2%

1-40.4%

2-40.4%

3-40.3%

4-40.1%

5-40.1%

0-50.0%

1-50.1%

2-50.1%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).

FORM · LAST 10

FC FRATRIA VARNAWDWDDDWWWL1.90 PPG

POFC BOTEV VRATSALLLWLWDDLL0.80 PPG

THE NUMBERS

FC FRATRIA VARNA HOMExPOFC BOTEV VRATSA AWAY

1.70SCORED A GAME0.700.90CONCEDED A GAME1.9040%CLEAN SHEETS20%17%FAILED TO SCORE45%6.67CORNERS A GAME4.201.67CARDS A GAME2.57

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

2.00POINTS A GAME1.33+0.75GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME-0.17–SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+1.21.8LAST 5: POINTS A GAME1.08LEAGUE GAMES6

FC Fratria Varna: the quality side - more points a game, a better goal difference, better form (last 5).

FC FRATRIA VARNA 2:0 HANDICAP

–

389 OF 413

NO PRICE YET

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

61%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

41%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

94%

VERY GOOD · 85/90

FC FRATRIA VARNA OR DRAW

86%

VERY GOOD · 80/85

POFC BOTEV VRATSA OR DRAW

46%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (8 and 6 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

FC FRATRIA VARNAxPOFC BOTEV VRATSA

5GAMES51.80SCORED A GAME1.001.00CONCEDED A GAME1.402.8GOALS IN THEIR GAMES2.4100%OVER 1.5 GOALS60%60%OVER 2.5 GOALS40%80%BOTH SCORE40%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES3.6–CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES10.0

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TRENDS

FC Fratria Varna have scored in 90% of their games.

POFC Botev Vratsa have scored in 40% of their games.

FC Fratria Varna kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games.

POFC Botev Vratsa kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetscornerscards