PCPFC

10:00Sun 18 Oct

BOT

PFC Chernomorets Burgas vs Botev Plovdiv

CLASS D

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THE READ

Match details. Bulgarian Cup, Round of 32. Kick-off is Sun 18 Oct, 10:00 Lagos time.

What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.

Form. PFC Chernomorets Burgas have won seven, drawn one and lost two of their last ten, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W W. Botev Plovdiv have won seven, drawn none and lost three of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W W.

The numbers. PFC Chernomorets Burgas score two and concede 0.6 a game over their last ten, with six clean sheets and two games without a goal. PFC Chernomorets Burgas average 13.2 shots (6.2 on target), 3.8 corners and 2.8 cards a game. Botev Plovdiv score 1.6 and concede one a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets and two games without a goal. Botev Plovdiv average 10.8 shots (4.8 on target), 3.5 corners and 1.9 cards a game.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 19% against the records' 50%.

The read. No firm call: PFC Chernomorets Burgas are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Their goals for and against make PFC Chernomorets Burgas the likelier winners; PFC Chernomorets Burgas are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour PFC Chernomorets Burgas. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 45%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: PFC Chernomorets Burgas 1-1 Botev Plovdiv (13% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

GOALS

Under 5.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

PFC 9 of 10 (90%) · BOT 10 of 10 (100%)95%

PFC Chernomorets Burgas: under 5.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Botev Plovdiv: under 5.5 goals in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 95%

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.11

PFC 9 of 10 (90%) · BOT 8 of 10 (80%)85%

PFC Chernomorets Burgas: under 4.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Botev Plovdiv: under 4.5 goals in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 85%

Under 3.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.31

PFC 8 of 10 (80%) · BOT 7 of 10 (70%)75%

PFC Chernomorets Burgas: under 3.5 goals in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Botev Plovdiv: under 3.5 goals in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75%

HALVES

Over 0.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.36

PFC 8 of 10 (80%) · BOT 8 of 10 (80%)80%

PFC Chernomorets Burgas: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Botev Plovdiv: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 80% · on half-time scores

Left off the list: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 13.2%

PFC Chernomorets… goals →

Botev Plovdiv goals ↓

0-09%

1-011%

2-09%

3-04%

4-02%

5-00.5%

0-18%

1-113%

2-19%

3-14%

4-12%

5-10.5%

0-24%

1-26%

2-25%

3-22%

4-20.8%

5-20.2%

0-31%

1-32%

2-32%

3-30.8%

4-30.3%

5-30.1%

0-40.4%

1-40.6%

2-40.4%

3-40.2%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.1%

1-50.1%

2-50.1%

3-50.0%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

PFC CHERNOMORETS BURGASLLWWDWWWWW2.20 PPG

BOTEV PLOVDIVWWLLLWWWWW2.10 PPG

THE NUMBERS

PFC CHERNOMORETS BURGAS HOMExBOTEV PLOVDIV AWAY

2.00SCORED A GAME1.600.60CONCEDED A GAME1.0060%CLEAN SHEETS50%3.75CORNERS A GAME3.502.75CARDS A GAME1.90

THE BANK

THE BANKER MENU

OVER 1.5 CARDS

–

543 OF 573

NO PRICE YET

Both sides' last 5 games point to 5.2+ cards.

Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.

THE QUALITY READ

2.00POINTS A GAME1.60+1.25GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+0.20–SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST-0.32.6LAST 5: POINTS A GAME2.48LEAGUE GAMES10

PFC Chernomorets Burgas: the quality side - a better goal difference.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

72%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

52%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

90%

VERY GOOD · 85/90

PFC CHERNOMORETS BURGAS OR DRAW

68%

NO · 80/85

BOTEV PLOVDIV OR DRAW

32%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (8 and 10 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

PFC CHERNOMORETS BURGASxBOTEV PLOVDIV

5GAMES52.20SCORED A GAME2.000.40CONCEDED A GAME1.002.6GOALS IN THEIR GAMES3.080%OVER 1.5 GOALS80%60%OVER 2.5 GOALS60%20%BOTH SCORE40%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES5.4–CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES8.4

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TRENDS

PFC Chernomorets Burgas have scored in 80% of their games.

Botev Plovdiv have scored in 80% of their games.

PFC Chernomorets Burgas kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games.

Botev Plovdiv kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetscornerscards