Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau
Match details. Liga 1, Clausura - 12. Kick-off is Sun 18 Oct, 02:30 Lagos time. It is played at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva, Lima. The referee is Michael Espinoza.
What's at stake. Alianza Lima are 8th on 19 points after 11 games, level on points with FBC Melgar, 1 point clear of Cusco. A win would take them above FBC Melgar. Atletico Grau are 11th on 17 points after 11 games, 1 point behind Sport Boys, 5 points clear of Club Deportivo Los Chankas. A win would take them above Sport Boys.
Form. Alianza Lima have won four, drawn four and lost two of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L D L. In this competition Alianza Lima have gone W W L D L D. Atletico Grau have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L W L W. In this competition Atletico Grau have gone D L W L W W.
The numbers. Alianza Lima score 1.4 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Alianza Lima average 18.0 shots (4.8 on target), 6.0 corners and 1.2 cards a game, with 60% of the ball. Atletico Grau score 1.2 and concede two a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Atletico Grau average 11.8 shots (4.5 on target), 3.8 corners and 2.4 cards a game, with 47% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last nine meetings Alianza Lima have won six, drawn two and lost one. Three of the nine went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, Alianza Lima won two, one was drawn and Atletico Grau won one. The last time they met, on 26 Apr 2026, it finished Alianza Lima 1-0 Atletico Grau: Alianza Lima had 12 shots to 8, 66% of the ball, three yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 39%; six of the last nine meetings went under 2.5, and the meetings settle it.
The case against. Atletico Grau's record still gives them 27% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game.
The read. Alianza Lima to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Alianza Lima the likelier winners; Alianza Lima are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Alianza Lima; the meetings favour Alianza Lima. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 39%. Six of the last nine meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Alianza Lima or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Alianza Lima or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Alianza Lima 2-0 Atletico Grau (12% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).